Swansea
vs
Norwich
2 – 1 Full time
| 22′ | Jay Fulton | ||
| 28′ | Jacob Wright | ||
| 49′ | Moussa Kounfolo Yeo | ||
| 58′ | Pelle Mattsson | ||
| 59′ | Adam Idah | ||
| 63′ | Adam IdahZan Vipotnik | ||
| 63′ | Paris MaghomaSamuel Field | ||
| 70′ | Jay FultonMarko Stamenić | ||
| 70′ | melker widellElijah Just | ||
| 70′ | Andre BrooksAnthony Musaba | ||
| 70′ | Mathias KvistgaardenJ. Makama | ||
| 84′ | Stephen WelshJenson Seelt | ||
| 84′ | Joseph Amankwaah OpokuEom Ji-Sung | ||
| 85′ | Jacob WrightAnis Ben Slimane |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Offsides | 6 |
| 4 | Saves | 5 |
| 455 | Accurate passes | 309 |
Swansea vs Norwich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swansea vs Norwich
| Probability | Swansea | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.5% | 18.4% | 16.1% |
| Market | 40.7% | 27.1% | 32.2% |
| Final | 46.9% | 25.0% | 28.2% |
| Edge | +6.2% | -2.2% | -4.0% |
Why Swansea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Swansea below our published probability: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Swansea and Norwich expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.92
Swansea and Norwich attack and defence ratings
Swansea
Norwich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Swansea vs Norwich: result vs prediction
Swansea 2 – 1 Norwich
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swansea vs Norwich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 46.9% | 2.13 | +6.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 46.9% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Norwich | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 45.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-1 | 7.4% |
Swansea vs Norwich stats
Swansea and Norwich recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swansea and Norwich going into this match
Swansea record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Swansea vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Norwich | Swansea | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Swansea | Norwich | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 5-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-27 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-04 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-22 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2022-12-10 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2021-02-05 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2020-11-07 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swansea vs Norwich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 27.1%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.42 | 2.92 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.38 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.42 | 2.91 |
| Pinnacle | 2.46 | 3.47 | 2.95 |
| SBO | 2.30 | 3.26 | 2.72 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
41 snapshots recorded, from .