Swansea
vs
Norwich
Garuda Lions Prediction: Swansea
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Swansea vs Norwich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swansea vs Norwich
| Probability | Swansea | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65.5% | 18.4% | 16.1% |
| Market | 40.2% | 27.3% | 32.5% |
| Final | 46.6% | 25.1% | 28.4% |
| Edge | +25.3% | -8.9% | -16.4% |
Why Swansea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.29.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Swansea below the model: +25.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.41, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Swansea vs Norwich match preview
Swansea hosts Norwich in the Championship, with the home side holding a 44% probability of winning compared to Norwich's 31%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Swansea, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Swansea's expected goals stand at 2.64, while Norwich's are significantly lower at 1.29.
In terms of recent form, Swansea has been performing well with three wins in their last five matches, while Norwich has struggled, managing only two wins in their last six games. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is high at 75%, and both teams are expected to score in 68% of scenarios. In their last two encounters, Swansea has secured one win and one draw against Norwich, who has yet to record a victory in this matchup.
Swansea and Norwich team news
Swansea news
- C. Burgess — achilles tendon injury
- J. Key — health problems
- R. Stewart — muscle injury
Norwich news
- A. Ahmed — knee injury
- L. Mahovo — ankle injury
- M. Topic — knee injury
- M. Toure — shoulder injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Swansea and Norwich expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.92
Swansea and Norwich attack and defence ratings
Swansea
Norwich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swansea vs Norwich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 46.6% | 2.15 | +25.3% | 2.41 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 46.6% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Norwich | 28.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 45.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 34.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-1 | 7.4% |
Swansea vs Norwich stats
Swansea and Norwich recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swansea and Norwich season so far
Swansea record
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Swansea vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Norwich | Swansea | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Swansea | Norwich | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 5-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-04-27 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2023-10-04 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-22 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2022-12-10 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2021-02-05 | Swansea | Norwich | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2020-11-07 | Norwich | Swansea | Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swansea vs Norwich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 27.3%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.42 | 2.91 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.50 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.41 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.42 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.44 | 2.92 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.19 | 2.68 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .