England Championship · 2026-09-19T14:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 8

Lincoln vs Swansea

1 – 2 Full time

6′			Ben House
25′			Ryley Towler
39′			Reeco Hackett-Fairchild
47′			Moussa Kounfolo Yeo
51′			Stephen Eustáquio
60′			Adam IdahZan Vipotnik
60′			Moussa Kounfolo YeoRonald Pereira Martins
60′			Elijah JustJoseph Amankwaah Opoku
64′			Adam ReachChiedozie Ogbene
64′			Conor McGrandlesYunus Konak
64′			Ben HouseMikkel Ladefoged
77′			Stephen EustáquioGoncalo Franco
77′			Ryley TowlerRobert Nicholas Street
82′			Stephen WelshJenson Seelt
84′			C. Cohen
90′			Filip Lissah

Sincil Bank, LincolnReferee: Anthony Backhouse

Lincoln

32%

Draw

29%

Swansea

39%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

13	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
58	Possession %	42
2	Corners	1
12	Fouls	11
4	Offsides	0
2	Saves	3
147	Accurate passes	461

Lincoln vs Swansea overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lincoln vs Swansea

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Lincoln	Draw	Swansea
Model	32.8%	30.4%	36.8%
Market	32.1%	28.7%	39.2%
Final	32.3%	29.1%	38.6%
Edge	+0.7%	+1.7%	-2.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

89%

2+ goals

70%

3+ goals

43%

No goals

11%

Lincoln and Swansea expected goals

Lincoln

1.15

Swansea

1.23

Total expected goals: 2.38

Lincoln and Swansea attack and defence ratings

Lincoln

Attack

1.01 +1%

Defence

0.89 -11%

Swansea

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lincoln vs Swansea: result vs prediction

Lincoln 1 – 2 Swansea

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

England Championship

Bristol City vs Watford · 2026-09-18
Cardiff v Charlton — match page · 2026-09-19
Millwall vs West Ham — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Stoke City vs Sheffield Utd · 2026-09-19
Burnley v Derby — match page · 2026-09-19
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
QPR v Preston — match page · 2026-09-19
Portsmouth vs Blackburn — team news & stats · 2026-09-19

Before and after this match

Lincoln, previous: Bristol City vs Lincoln prediction
Lincoln, next: Sheffield Utd vs Lincoln: odds and pick
Swansea, previous: Swansea v Burnley analysis
Swansea, next: Swansea vs Norwich: odds and pick

Lincoln vs Swansea markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Swansea	38.6%	2.59	-2.4%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	57.4%	1.74	—	—
Both teams to score	No	50.3%	1.99	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	70.9%	1.41	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	63.3%	1.58	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Lincoln	32.3%
	Draw	29.1%
	Swansea	38.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	42.6%
	Under 2.5	57.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	49.7%
	No	50.3%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	61.4%
	12 (either side)	70.9%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.7%
Handicap -1	Swansea win	16.5%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.3%
	Loss	63.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.4%
	0-0	10.5%
	0-1	10.1%

Lincoln vs Swansea stats

Lincoln and Swansea recent form

newest first

Lincoln	WWLDDW
Swansea	WLDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lincoln and Swansea going into this match

league record before kick-off

Lincoln record

They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Swansea record

They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Lincoln vs Swansea head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Lincoln vs Swansea odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.1%, draw 28.7%, away 39.2%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.90	3.24	2.40
Bet365	3.00	3.25	2.38
BetVictor	3.00	3.30	2.38
Betano	2.95	3.35	2.42
Betfair	2.90	3.30	2.40
Marathonbet	2.89	3.24	2.38
Pinnacle	3.02	3.42	2.44
SBO	2.59	3.04	2.30
William Hill	2.90	3.20	2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.90 ▲ +0.20

X 3.25 ▼ -0.15

2 2.38 ▼ -0.07

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-13T08:10:02Z.