Burnley
vs
Derby
1 – 1 Full time
| 31′ | Igor Júlio | ||
| 34′ | Zeki Amdouni | ||
| 56′ | Anel Ahmedhodzic | ||
| 61′ | Marcus EdwardsLargie Ramazani | ||
| 61′ | Reo HatateUgo Raghouber | ||
| 66′ | Alex MowattOscar Fraulo | ||
| 66′ | Ryan HedgesMohammed Fuseini | ||
| 67′ | D. Ozoh | ||
| 68′ | Josh Laurent | ||
| 73′ | Zeki AmdouniJamie Vardy | ||
| 73′ | Jacob Bruun LarsenAndréas Hountondji | ||
| 78′ | D. OzohRhian Brewster | ||
| 82′ | Charlie TaylorCorey Blackett-Taylor | ||
| 86′ | Ugo Raghouber | ||
| 87′ | Corey Blackett-Taylor | ||
| 89′ | Lucas Pires SilvaOliver Sonne | ||
| 90′ | Mohammed Fuseini |
Match stats
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 345 | Accurate passes | 313 |
Burnley vs Derby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burnley vs Derby
| Probability | Burnley | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.7% | 27.8% | 34.6% |
| Market | 51.9% | 25.6% | 22.5% |
| Final | 48.3% | 26.2% | 25.5% |
| Edge | -14.2% | +2.1% | +12.1% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burnley and Derby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Burnley and Derby attack and defence ratings
Burnley
Derby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Burnley vs Derby: result vs prediction
Burnley 1 – 1 Derby
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burnley vs Derby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 48.3% | 2.07 | -14.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 48.3% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Derby | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.1% |
Burnley vs Derby stats
Burnley and Derby recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burnley and Derby going into this match
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley vs Derby head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-26 | Burnley | Derby | League Cup | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-08 | Derby | Burnley | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-12-10 | Burnley | Derby | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2016-01-25 | Burnley | Derby | Championship | 4-1 |
| 2015-09-21 | Derby | Burnley | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2014-03-01 | Burnley | Derby | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2013-08-31 | Derby | Burnley | Championship | 0-3 |
| 2012-12-26 | Burnley | Derby | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2012-09-22 | Derby | Burnley | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2012-01-21 | Burnley | Derby | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burnley vs Derby odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.9%, draw 25.6%, away 22.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.82 | 3.62 | 4.08 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.88 | 3.85 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.79 | 3.64 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 3.78 | 4.24 |
| SBO | 1.79 | 3.19 | 3.64 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .