Derby
vs
Birmingham
1 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | Mohammed Fuseini | ||
| 21′ | Alex Cochrane | ||
| 40′ | Bobby Clark | ||
| 42′ | Carlos Vicente | ||
| 44′ | August Priske | ||
| 54′ | Henrik Wendel MeisterOscar Fraulo | ||
| 60′ | Jhon Elmer Solís RomeroPaik Seung-Ho | ||
| 63′ | Paik Seung-Ho | ||
| 73′ | August PriskeLuis Vasquez | ||
| 73′ | Liam MillarEthan Laird | ||
| 85′ | D. OzohCorey Blackett-Taylor | ||
| 85′ | Eiran Joe CashinRyan Hedges | ||
| 90′ | Carlos Vicente | ||
| 90′ | Charlie TaylorLars-Jørgen Salvesen | ||
| 90′ | Jay StansfieldKristoffer Lund | ||
| 90′ | Carlos VicenteDael Fry |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 18 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 9 |
| 59 | Possession % | 41 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 6 | Saves | 1 |
| 290 | Accurate passes | 183 |
Derby vs Birmingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs Birmingham
| Probability | Derby | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.5% | 27.4% | 38.2% |
| Market | 27.0% | 28.5% | 44.5% |
| Final | 28.9% | 28.2% | 42.9% |
| Edge | +7.5% | -1.1% | -6.4% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and Birmingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Derby and Birmingham attack and defence ratings
Derby
Birmingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Derby vs Birmingham: result vs prediction
Derby 1 – 2 Birmingham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs Birmingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 42.9% | 2.33 | -6.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 28.9% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Birmingham | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 2-1 | 8.1% |
Derby vs Birmingham stats
Derby and Birmingham recent form
| Derby |
LLWLDL |
| Birmingham |
LDDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and Birmingham going into this match
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Derby vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Derby | Birmingham | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Birmingham | Derby | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2022-01-30 | Derby | Birmingham | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2021-09-10 | Birmingham | Derby | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2021-04-24 | Derby | Birmingham | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2020-12-29 | Birmingham | Derby | Championship | 0-4 |
| 2020-07-22 | Birmingham | Derby | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2019-09-28 | Derby | Birmingham | Championship | 3-2 |
| 2019-04-19 | Birmingham | Derby | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2018-11-03 | Derby | Birmingham | Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs Birmingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.6%, draw 28.4%, away 44.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.22 |
| 1xBet | 3.48 | 3.22 | 2.13 |
| 888Sport | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Bet365 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 3.48 | 3.22 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 3.61 | 3.35 | 2.18 |
| SBO | 3.25 | 3.12 | 2.08 |
| Unibet | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .