Blackburn
vs
Millwall
3 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | Hayden Carter | ||
| 16′ | Yuri RibeiroHarry Pickering | ||
| 38′ | Sam Morsy | ||
| 41′ | Oladapo Afolayan | ||
| 45′ | Harry Pickering | ||
| 45′ | Zak Sturge | ||
| 45′ | Ryan AlebiosuGady Beyuku | ||
| 45′ | Jordi Osei-TutuMark Sykes | ||
| 45′ | Romain EsseYanis Ali Issoufou | ||
| 50′ | Gady Beyuku | ||
| 51′ | Lyndon Dykes | ||
| 58′ | Oladapo Afolayan | ||
| 69′ | Oladapo AfolayanJ. Fevrier | ||
| 70′ | Todd CantwellAndri Guðjohnsen | ||
| 76′ | Derek Mazou SackoD. Kelly | ||
| 81′ | Jenson Metcalfe | ||
| 82′ | Jenson MetcalfeElkan Baggott | ||
| 82′ | Jake CooperZakariya Lovelace | ||
| 86′ | J. Fevrier | ||
| 90′ | Mark Sykes | ||
| 90′ | Andri Guðjohnsen |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 278 | Accurate passes | 346 |
Blackburn vs Millwall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Blackburn vs Millwall
| Probability | Blackburn | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.4% | 30.2% | 39.4% |
| Market | 35.4% | 28.6% | 36.1% |
| Final | 34.1% | 29.0% | 36.9% |
| Edge | -5.0% | +1.6% | +3.3% |
Why Millwall
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Millwall below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Blackburn and Millwall expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.39
Blackburn and Millwall attack and defence ratings
Blackburn
Millwall
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Blackburn vs Millwall: result vs prediction
Blackburn 3 – 1 Millwall
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Blackburn vs Millwall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 36.9% | 2.71 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 34.1% |
| Draw | 29.0% | |
| Millwall | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.6% |
| No | 50.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millwall win | 18.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 60.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 10.5% | |
| 0-0 | 10.5% |
Blackburn vs Millwall stats
Blackburn and Millwall recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Blackburn and Millwall going into this match
Blackburn record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Millwall record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Blackburn vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Millwall | Blackburn | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Blackburn | Millwall | England Championship | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-18 | Blackburn | Millwall | Championship | 4-1 |
| 2024-12-21 | Millwall | Blackburn | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-05 | Blackburn | Millwall | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-24 | Millwall | Blackburn | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-08 | Millwall | Blackburn | Championship | 3-4 |
| 2022-10-01 | Blackburn | Millwall | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-03-08 | Blackburn | Millwall | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-08-14 | Millwall | Blackburn | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Blackburn vs Millwall odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.9%, draw 28.5%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.82 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.28 | 2.58 |
| 888Sport | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.67 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.43 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.28 | 2.57 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.47 | 2.67 |
| SBO | 2.57 | 3.11 | 2.50 |
| Unibet | 2.95 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .