England Championship
·
Full time
·Matchday 6
Middlesbrough
vs
Millwall
2 – 2 Full time
| 11′ | Taïryk Arconte | ||
| 36′ | Lyndon Dykes | ||
| 45′ | Sebastian BerhalterKyle Joseph | ||
| 45′ | Neto BorgesMax Arfsten | ||
| 45′ | Tommy ConwayJeremy Sarmiento | ||
| 50′ | Amario Cozier-Duberry | ||
| 56′ | Lyndon DykesElkan Baggott | ||
| 59′ | Derek Mazou Sacko | ||
| 61′ | will lankshear | ||
| 66′ | Riley McGree | ||
| 75′ | Jenson MetcalfeD. Kelly | ||
| 75′ | Taïryk ArconteZakariya Lovelace | ||
| 78′ | Riley McGreeMyles Peart-Harris | ||
| 84′ | Zak SturgeLuke Cundle | ||
| 84′ | Mark SykesYanis Ali Issoufou | ||
| 85′ | Amario Cozier-DuberryDavid Strelec |
Middlesbrough
61%
Draw
21%
Millwall
18%
Match stats
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 80 | Possession % | 20 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 3 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 599 | Accurate passes | 102 |
Middlesbrough vs Millwall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Middlesbrough vs Millwall
| Probability | Middlesbrough | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.4% | 24.9% | 25.7% |
| Market | 64.4% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
| Final | 60.6% | 21.5% | 17.9% |
| Edge | -15.0% | +4.6% | +10.4% |
Why Middlesbrough
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
5%
Middlesbrough and Millwall expected goals
Middlesbrough
1.83
Millwall
1.28
Total expected goals: 3.11
Middlesbrough and Millwall attack and defence ratings
Middlesbrough
Attack
1.23 +23%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Millwall
Attack
1.01 +1%
Defence
1.05 +5%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Middlesbrough vs Millwall: result vs prediction
Middlesbrough 2 – 2 Millwall
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Middlesbrough vs Millwall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 60.6% | 1.65 | -15.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 60.6% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Millwall | 17.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.7% |
| No | 38.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 28.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 50.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Middlesbrough vs Millwall stats
Middlesbrough and Millwall recent form
| Middlesbrough |
WLWDWW |
| Millwall |
LLWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Middlesbrough and Millwall going into this match
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Millwall record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Middlesbrough vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Middlesbrough wins
2Draws
4Millwall wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Middlesbrough | Millwall | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Millwall | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 0-3 |
| 2025-04-12 | Millwall | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-12-14 | Middlesbrough | Millwall | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-13 | Millwall | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2023-08-05 | Middlesbrough | Millwall | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-01-14 | Middlesbrough | Millwall | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-08 | Millwall | Middlesbrough | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-03-12 | Millwall | Middlesbrough | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-11-20 | Middlesbrough | Millwall | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Middlesbrough vs Millwall odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.4%, draw 20.3%, away 15.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.60 | 6.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.75 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.65 | 6.10 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.44 | 4.60 | 6.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 4.82 | 6.57 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 4.24 | 5.51 |
| Unibet | 1.91 | 3.55 | 3.75 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.45 ▼ -0.45
X
4.60 ▲ +1.05
2
6.10 ▲ +2.30
14 snapshots recorded, from .