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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 6

Wrexham vs Burnley

1 – 1 Full time

14′Issa Kaboré
26′Z. Amdouni
30′M. CleworthZ. Vyner
46′L. O'BrienO. Rathbone
46′J. WindassC. O'Hare
55′J. Ekomie
61′K. MooreS. Smith
65′Aaron Ramsey
68′IgorH. Ekdal
69′A. RamseyLucas Pires
78′M. AlleyneR. Hatate
84′Dominic Hyam
85′J. EkomieR. Longman
86′Lucas Pires
90′Reo Hatate

Racecourse Ground, WrexhamReferee: T. Robinson

Wrexham 49%
Draw 27%
Burnley 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 4
53 Possession % 47
4 Corners 4
12 Fouls 15
1 Offsides 3
2 Saves 4
435 Accurate passes 393

Wrexham vs Burnley overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Wrexham vs Burnley

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWrexhamDrawBurnley
Model56.4%25.7%17.9%
Market46.9%26.8%26.3%
Final49.3%26.5%24.2%
Edge+9.5%-1.1%-8.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Wrexham

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.89.
  • Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Wrexham below the model: +9.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Wrexham ↓ / Burnley → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 49%
No goals 8%

Wrexham and Burnley expected goals

Wrexham 1.74
Burnley 0.89

Total expected goals: 2.64

Wrexham and Burnley attack and defence ratings

Wrexham

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Burnley

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Wrexham vs Burnley: result vs prediction

Wrexham 1 – 1 Burnley

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Wrexham vs Burnley markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Wrexham 49.3% 2.03 +9.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.9% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score No 50.2% 1.99 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.8% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.6% 2.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Wrexham49.3%
Draw26.5%
Burnley24.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.1%
Under 2.550.9%
Both teams to scoreYes49.8%
No50.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.8%
12 (either side)73.5%
X2 (draw or away)50.7%
Handicap -1Wrexham win32.5%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss43.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.3%
1-011.4%
2-010.9%

Wrexham vs Burnley stats

Wrexham and Burnley recent form

newest first
Wrexham DWLDDL
Burnley LDLDLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Wrexham and Burnley going into this match

league record before kick-off

Wrexham record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Burnley record

  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Wrexham vs Burnley head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Wrexham vs Burnley odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.9%, draw 26.8%, away 26.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.97 3.50 3.60
1xBet 2.01 3.52 3.50
888Sport 2.00 3.40 3.40
Bet365 2.00 3.50 3.70
BetVictor 2.00 3.50 3.60
Betano 2.00 3.55 3.70
Betfair 2.00 3.50 3.60
Dafabet 2.07 3.60 3.60
Marathonbet 1.98 3.54 3.52
Pinnacle 2.05 3.69 3.63
SBO 2.00 3.25 3.32
Superbet 2.07 3.50 3.55
Unibet 2.02 3.50 3.40
William Hill 2.00 3.40 3.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.00 ▼ -0.27
X 3.50 ▼ -0.10
2 3.58 ▲ +0.68

10 snapshots recorded, from .