Norwich
vs
Birmingham
2 – 1 Full time
| 13′ | Ben Chrisene | ||
| 25′ | José Córdoba | ||
| 28′ | O. Schwartau | ||
| 39′ | P. A. Diallo | ||
| 46′ | P. A. DialloA. Musaba | ||
| 59′ | Jack Stacey | ||
| 60′ | Oscar Schwartau | ||
| 60′ | Carlos Vicente | ||
| 62′ | K. LundA. Cochrane | ||
| 62′ | B. Osayi-SamuelE. Laird | ||
| 64′ | C. Vicente | ||
| 65′ | A. BrooksA. Crnac | ||
| 71′ | O. SchwartauJ. Wright | ||
| 71′ | M. KvistgaardenJ. Makama | ||
| 82′ | A. PriskeM. Ducksch | ||
| 82′ | T. IwataL. Vazquez | ||
| 83′ | Jovon Makama | ||
| 83′ | Phil Neumann | ||
| 90′ | Ante Crnac | ||
| 90′ | B. ChriseneH. Darling |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 50 | Possession % | 50 |
| 6 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 2 | Saves | 4 |
| 241 | Accurate passes | 220 |
Norwich vs Birmingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Norwich vs Birmingham
| Probability | Norwich | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.2% | 23.1% | 21.7% |
| Market | 50.3% | 26.2% | 23.6% |
| Final | 51.5% | 25.4% | 23.1% |
| Edge | +5.0% | -3.1% | -1.8% |
Why Norwich
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.06 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Norwich below the model: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Norwich and Birmingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.30
Norwich and Birmingham attack and defence ratings
Norwich
Birmingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Norwich vs Birmingham: result vs prediction
Norwich 2 – 1 Birmingham
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Norwich vs Birmingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 51.5% | 1.94 | +5.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 51.5% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Birmingham | 23.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.0% |
| No | 37.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Norwich win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.8% |
Norwich vs Birmingham stats
Norwich and Birmingham recent form
| Norwich |
WLWWLL |
| Birmingham |
DDWLDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Norwich and Birmingham going into this match
Norwich record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Birmingham record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Norwich vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Norwich | Birmingham | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Birmingham | Norwich | England Championship | 4-1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Birmingham | Norwich | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-30 | Norwich | Birmingham | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-21 | Norwich | Birmingham | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2022-08-30 | Birmingham | Norwich | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-08-09 | Norwich | Birmingham | League Cup | 2-2 |
| 2021-02-23 | Birmingham | Norwich | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2020-10-20 | Norwich | Birmingham | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2019-01-18 | Norwich | Birmingham | Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Norwich vs Birmingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.3%, draw 26.2%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| 888Sport | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.90 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.93 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.70 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 1.89 | 3.77 | 4.13 |
| SBO | 1.89 | 3.33 | 3.55 |
| Superbet | 1.88 | 3.65 | 4.10 |
| Unibet | 1.88 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .