Middlesbrough
vs
Norwich
4 – 3 Full time
| 1′ | Mohamed Toure | ||
| 4′ | Sebastian Berhalter | ||
| 7′ | Amario Cozier-Duberry | ||
| 36′ | Sebastian Berhalter | ||
| 45′ | Alfie JonesAshley Phillips | ||
| 45′ | Anis Ben SlimaneJacob Wright | ||
| 53′ | Riley McGree | ||
| 62′ | Mohamed ToureJ. Makama | ||
| 62′ | Kellen FisherJack Stacey | ||
| 63′ | Tommy ConwayMyles Peart-Harris | ||
| 63′ | Riley McGreeKyle Joseph | ||
| 70′ | J. Makama | ||
| 73′ | Amario Cozier-DuberryMax Arfsten | ||
| 74′ | Andre BrooksParis Maghoma | ||
| 75′ | Jacob Wright | ||
| 89′ | Ashley Phillips | ||
| 90′ | Anthony MusabaOscar Schwartau | ||
| 90′ | Jack Stacey | ||
| 90′ | Ashley Phillips | ||
| 90′ | will lankshearLuke Ayling |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 2 | Saves | 2 |
| 354 | Accurate passes | 330 |
Middlesbrough vs Norwich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Middlesbrough vs Norwich
| Probability | Middlesbrough | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.6% | 26.5% | 35.9% |
| Market | 51.3% | 24.1% | 24.7% |
| Final | 47.8% | 24.7% | 27.5% |
| Edge | -13.7% | +2.5% | +11.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Middlesbrough and Norwich expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
Middlesbrough and Norwich attack and defence ratings
Middlesbrough
Norwich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Middlesbrough vs Norwich: result vs prediction
Middlesbrough 4 – 3 Norwich
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Middlesbrough vs Norwich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 47.8% | 2.09 | -13.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 47.8% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Norwich | 27.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.5% |
| No | 38.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 8.3% |
Middlesbrough vs Norwich stats
Middlesbrough and Norwich recent form
| Middlesbrough |
LWDWWL |
| Norwich |
WWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Middlesbrough and Norwich going into this match
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
Norwich record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Middlesbrough vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Middlesbrough | Norwich | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Norwich | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-26 | Middlesbrough | Norwich | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-27 | Norwich | Middlesbrough | Championship | 3-3 |
| 2024-03-06 | Middlesbrough | Norwich | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2023-10-24 | Norwich | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-04-14 | Middlesbrough | Norwich | Championship | 5-1 |
| 2022-11-12 | Norwich | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2021-01-30 | Norwich | Middlesbrough | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2020-11-21 | Middlesbrough | Norwich | Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Middlesbrough vs Norwich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.1%, draw 24.3%, away 24.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.81 | 3.85 | 3.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.80 | 3.78 |
| 888Sport | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.95 | 3.80 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 4.05 | 3.93 |
| SBO | 1.82 | 3.59 | 3.55 |
| Unibet | 1.82 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .