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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 7

Watford vs Stoke City

1 – 2 Full time

19′Iker Bravo
33′El Hadji Soumare
42′Jordan ZemuraHaktab Omar Traore
45′Jack Mcglynn
57′Eric Junior Bocat
58′Stephy MavididiRocco Vata
58′Othmane MaammaAmin Nabizada
65′Lamine CisséGeorge Hirst
69′Iker BravoLuca Kjerrumgaard
80′Eric Junior BocatLuca Bombino
82′George Hirst
90′Jack McglynnBen Pearson
90′Amin Nabizada
90′Amin Nabizada

Vicarage Road, WatfordReferee: L. Smith

Watford 37%
Draw 28%
Stoke City 35%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

6 Shots 18
2 Shots on target 6
40 Possession % 60
5 Corners 8
14 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 3
4 Saves 1
303 Accurate passes 472

Watford vs Stoke City overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Watford vs Stoke City

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityWatfordDrawStoke City
Model25.1%27.1%47.8%
Market40.5%28.2%31.3%
Final36.6%27.9%35.5%
Edge-15.4%-1.1%+16.5%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Watford ↓ / Stoke City → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 9% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Watford and Stoke City expected goals

Watford 1.11
Stoke City 1.62

Total expected goals: 2.73

Watford and Stoke City attack and defence ratings

Watford

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Stoke City

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Watford vs Stoke City: result vs prediction

Watford 1 – 2 Stoke City

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Watford vs Stoke City markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Watford 36.6% 2.73 -15.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.4% 1.95 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.0% 1.82 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.1% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 74.9% 1.33 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Watford36.6%
Draw27.9%
Stoke City35.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.4%
Under 2.548.6%
Both teams to scoreYes55.0%
No45.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.5%
12 (either side)72.1%
X2 (draw or away)63.4%
Handicap -1Watford win10.2%
Push (exactly one goal)14.9%
Loss74.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
1-29.5%
0-19.4%

Watford vs Stoke City stats

Watford and Stoke City recent form

newest first
Watford WLLDLD
Stoke City DWWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Watford and Stoke City going into this match

league record before kick-off

Watford record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.

Stoke City record

  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Watford vs Stoke City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Watford wins 2Draws 3Stoke City wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-14Stoke CityWatfordEngland Championship3-1
2025-12-20WatfordStoke CityEngland Championship1-0
2025-03-01Stoke CityWatfordChampionship0-0
2024-08-17WatfordStoke CityChampionship3-0
2023-12-29WatfordStoke CityChampionship1-1
2023-08-19Stoke CityWatfordChampionship1-0
2023-05-08WatfordStoke CityChampionship2-0
2022-10-02Stoke CityWatfordChampionship0-4
2021-09-21WatfordStoke CityLeague Cup1-3
2021-01-22Stoke CityWatfordChampionship1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Watford vs Stoke City odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.2%, draw 28.2%, away 31.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.32 3.35 2.94
1xBet 2.34 3.30 2.97
888Sport 2.30 3.20 2.90
Bet365 2.30 3.30 3.10
BetVictor 2.30 3.40 3.00
Betano 2.40 3.30 3.00
Betfair 2.30 3.50 2.90
Dafabet 2.43 3.45 2.95
Marathonbet 2.32 3.30 2.96
Pinnacle 2.37 3.47 3.05
SBO 2.30 3.09 2.70
Unibet 2.45 3.25 2.80
William Hill 2.30 3.25 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▼ -0.21
X 3.30 —
2 2.97 ▲ +0.27

9 snapshots recorded, from .