England Championship
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Bristol City
vs
Watford
1 – 0 Full time
| 21′ | Mamadou Doumbia | ||
| 25′ | Amin Nabizada | ||
| 31′ | Dominic Ballard | ||
| 54′ | Branimir Mlacic | ||
| 54′ | Jason Knight | ||
| 54′ | Joe Williams | ||
| 54′ | Edo Kayembe | ||
| 62′ | Branimir MlacicAlbert Eames | ||
| 62′ | Rocco VataOthmane Maamma | ||
| 62′ | Amin NabizadaStephy Mavididi | ||
| 63′ | Dominic Ballardlorent tolaj | ||
| 63′ | Yu HirakawaJed Wallace | ||
| 70′ | Mamadou DoumbiaMyron Boadu | ||
| 70′ | Sam GreenwoodCameron Pring | ||
| 81′ | Matthew Pollock | ||
| 88′ | N.EileLisav Naif Eissat | ||
| 88′ | Adam RandellGibson Osahumen Yah |
Bristol City
55%
Draw
25%
Watford
20%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 36 | Possession % | 64 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 6 |
| 208 | Accurate passes | 421 |
Bristol City vs Watford overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol City vs Watford
| Probability | Bristol City | Draw | Watford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.1% | 23.9% | 18.0% |
| Market | 54.2% | 24.8% | 21.0% |
| Final | 55.2% | 24.6% | 20.2% |
| Edge | +3.9% | -1.0% | -3.0% |
Why Bristol City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bristol City below the model: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
6%
Bristol City and Watford expected goals
Bristol City
1.93
Watford
1.00
Total expected goals: 2.93
Bristol City and Watford attack and defence ratings
Bristol City
Attack
1.00 +0%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Watford
Attack
0.72 -28%
Defence
1.35 +35%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Bristol City vs Watford: result vs prediction
Bristol City 1 – 0 Watford
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol City vs Watford markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol City | 55.2% | 1.81 | +3.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.9% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol City | 55.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Watford | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.9% |
| No | 45.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol City win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 41.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-0 | 10.0% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Bristol City vs Watford stats
Bristol City and Watford recent form
| Bristol City |
LLWWWD |
| Watford |
LWLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol City and Watford going into this match
Bristol City record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Watford record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
Bristol City vs Watford head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
3Bristol City wins
3Draws
4Watford wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Bristol City | Watford | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Bristol City | Watford | England FA Cup | 5-1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Watford | Bristol City | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-05 | Bristol City | Watford | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-26 | Watford | Bristol City | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-20 | Bristol City | Watford | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-26 | Watford | Bristol City | Championship | 1-4 |
| 2023-04-15 | Watford | Bristol City | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-11-12 | Bristol City | Watford | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-02-13 | Watford | Bristol City | Championship | 6-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bristol City vs Watford odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.2%, draw 24.8%, away 21.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.96 | 4.62 |
| SBO | 1.71 | 3.58 | 4.13 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.33 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.74 ▼ -0.30
X
3.80 ▲ +0.30
2
4.50 ▲ +1.14
14 snapshots recorded, from .