Birmingham
vs
Middlesbrough
2 – 2 Full time
| 24′ | Luis Vasquez | ||
| 45′ | Max Arfsten | ||
| 55′ | Liam Millar | ||
| 59′ | Riley McGree | ||
| 63′ | Myles Peart-HarrisTommy Conway | ||
| 63′ | Riley McGreeSebastian Berhalter | ||
| 71′ | Luis VasquezMarvin Ducksch | ||
| 74′ | Amario Cozier-DuberryJeremy Sarmiento | ||
| 83′ | Jay StansfieldPaik Seung-Ho | ||
| 86′ | Max ArfstenNeto Borges | ||
| 86′ | Ashley PhillipsKyle Joseph | ||
| 88′ | A.Malanda | ||
| 88′ | Phil Neumann | ||
| 90′ | Carlos VicentePatrick Roberts |
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 3 | Saves | 4 |
| 270 | Accurate passes | 320 |
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.3% | 24.6% | 38.1% |
| Market | 35.1% | 26.3% | 38.6% |
| Final | 35.6% | 25.9% | 38.5% |
| Edge | +2.3% | -1.7% | -0.5% |
Why Middlesbrough
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Middlesbrough expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.40
Birmingham and Middlesbrough attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Middlesbrough
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough: result vs prediction
Birmingham 2 – 2 Middlesbrough
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 38.5% | 2.60 | -0.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 35.6% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Middlesbrough | 38.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.8% |
| No | 32.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 62.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 8.2% | |
| 2-1 | 8.2% |
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough stats
Birmingham and Middlesbrough recent form
| Birmingham |
WLDDWL |
| Middlesbrough |
DWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and Middlesbrough going into this match
Birmingham record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | Birmingham | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Middlesbrough | Birmingham | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-12 | Birmingham | Middlesbrough | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Middlesbrough | Birmingham | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-01-02 | Birmingham | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2022-10-05 | Middlesbrough | Birmingham | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-03-15 | Birmingham | Middlesbrough | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2021-10-30 | Middlesbrough | Birmingham | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2021-01-16 | Middlesbrough | Birmingham | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2020-12-19 | Birmingham | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Middlesbrough odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.1%, draw 26.3%, away 38.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.72 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Betfair | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.48 | 2.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.79 | 3.65 | 2.50 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 3.14 | 2.24 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .