Charlton
vs
Bristol City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bristol City
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Charlton vs Bristol City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charlton vs Bristol City
| Probability | Charlton | Draw | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.2% | 28.9% | 40.9% |
| Market | 29.9% | 28.6% | 41.5% |
| Final | 29.9% | 28.7% | 41.4% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.3% | -0.6% |
Why Bristol City
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Charlton vs Bristol City match preview
Charlton faces Bristol City in an upcoming Championship clash, with kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 30% probability of a Charlton victory, while Bristol City is favored with a 41% chance. The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Bristol City at 1.40 compared to Charlton's 1.17. Recent form shows Charlton struggling with one win in their last six matches, while Bristol City has been in better shape, winning four of their last six.
In terms of scoring, the most likely outcome is a 0-1 victory for Bristol City, with a 9% chance of occurring. The probabilities also indicate a 47% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance that both teams will score. Historically, Charlton has not won in their last two encounters against Bristol City, with one draw and one loss.
Charlton and Bristol City team news
Charlton news
- B. Koumetio — muscle injury
- C. Sichenje — knee injury
- K. Ramsay — ankle injury
- M. Godden — muscle injury
- N. Chalobah — muscle injury
- W. Mannion — shoulder injury
Bristol City news
- R. Dickie — knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Charlton and Bristol City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Charlton and Bristol City attack and defence ratings
Charlton
Bristol City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Charlton vs Bristol City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol City | 41.4% | 2.42 | -0.6% | 2.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 29.9% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| Bristol City | 41.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% |
| No | 46.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bristol City win | 19.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 9.5% | |
| 0-0 | 9.0% |
Charlton vs Bristol City stats
Charlton and Bristol City recent form
| Charlton |
LDDLDW |
| Bristol City |
WLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charlton and Bristol City season so far
Charlton record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol City record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Charlton vs Bristol City head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Charlton | Bristol City | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Bristol City | Charlton | England Championship | 0-0 |
| 2019-12-26 | Charlton | Bristol City | Championship | 3-2 |
| 2019-10-23 | Bristol City | Charlton | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2016-02-06 | Charlton | Bristol City | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2015-12-26 | Bristol City | Charlton | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2013-05-04 | Charlton | Bristol City | Championship | 4-1 |
| 2012-11-11 | Bristol City | Charlton | Championship | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Charlton vs Bristol City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.9%, draw 28.6%, away 41.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.24 | 2.26 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.25 | 3.35 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.35 | 2.31 |
| Marathonbet | 3.12 | 3.24 | 2.24 |
| Pinnacle | 3.24 | 3.30 | 2.28 |
| SBO | 2.96 | 3.01 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
40 snapshots recorded, from .