Burnley
vs
Charlton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burnley
1 – 0 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Burnley vs Charlton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burnley vs Charlton
| Probability | Burnley | Draw | Charlton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.3% | 29.2% | 31.5% |
| Market | 55.0% | 24.8% | 20.2% |
| Final | 51.1% | 25.9% | 23.0% |
| Edge | -15.7% | +4.5% | +11.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Burnley vs Charlton match preview
Burnley faces Charlton in the Championship with a slight edge in the probabilities, as Burnley is given a 51% chance of winning, while Charlton stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Burnley, with a 9% probability. Both teams show a moderate chance of scoring, with 53% for both teams to find the net, and a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Burnley has struggled with five games without a win, recording four draws and one loss. Conversely, Charlton has shown some improvement, managing one win in their last five matches, alongside two draws and two losses. The expected goals indicate Burnley at 1.35 and Charlton at 1.18, suggesting a closely contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burnley and Charlton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Burnley and Charlton attack and defence ratings
Burnley
Charlton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burnley vs Charlton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 51.1% | 1.96 | -15.7% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 51.1% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Charlton | 23.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.7% |
| No | 47.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win | 18.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.9% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Burnley vs Charlton stats
Burnley and Charlton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burnley and Charlton season so far
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlton record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley vs Charlton head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Burnley vs Charlton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.0%, draw 24.8%, away 20.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 3.75 | 4.57 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .