England Championship
·
Full time
·Matchday 11
Burnley
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1 – 2 Full time
| 20′ | Jamie Vardy | ||
| 39′ | Fer López | ||
| 61′ | Jean-Ricner BellegardeMateus Mane | ||
| 61′ | Jamie VardyArmando Broja | ||
| 61′ | Jacob Bruun LarsenDastan Satpaev | ||
| 63′ | Reo Hatate | ||
| 70′ | Sean Neave | ||
| 71′ | Fer LópezThomas Doyle | ||
| 71′ | Sean NeaveTawanda Chirewa | ||
| 72′ | Tawanda Chirewa | ||
| 75′ | Reo HatateMarcus Edwards | ||
| 87′ | Ghislain KonanLadislav Krejčí | ||
| 87′ | Rafiki Said AhamadaHugo Bueno | ||
| 87′ | Max AlleyneUgo Raghouber | ||
| 90′ | Kyle Walker |
Burnley
32%
Draw
27%
Wolverhampton Wanderers
41%
Match stats
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 7 | Offsides | 0 |
| 5 | Saves | 3 |
| 350 | Accurate passes | 417 |
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Probability | Burnley | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.7% | 26.6% | 33.6% |
| Market | 29.9% | 26.6% | 43.5% |
| Final | 32.4% | 26.6% | 41.0% |
| Edge | +2.5% | -0.0% | -2.5% |
Why Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
57%
No goals
6%
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
Burnley
1.55
Wolverhampton Wanderers
1.42
Total expected goals: 2.97
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Burnley
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
1.14 +14%
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
1.01 +1%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: result vs prediction
Burnley 1 – 2 Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 41.0% | 2.44 | -2.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 32.4% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 41.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.9% |
| No | 39.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.7% | |
| Loss | 66.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers stats
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
| Burnley |
DWDLDL |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers |
LLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers going into this match
Burnley record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolverhampton Wanderers record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
4Burnley wins
3Draws
3Wolverhampton Wanderers wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2024-08-28 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | League Cup | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-02 | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-05 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2022-07-09 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | Friendlies Clubs | 3-0 |
| 2022-04-24 | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2021-12-01 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2021-04-25 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | Premier League | 0-4 |
| 2020-12-21 | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.4%, draw 26.8%, away 42.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.18 | 3.54 | 2.11 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.35 |
| Marathonbet | 3.18 | 3.54 | 2.09 |
| Pinnacle | 3.30 | 3.63 | 2.19 |
| SBO | 2.77 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
3.16 ▲ +0.05
X
3.54 ▲ +0.04
2
2.17 ▲ +0.02
12 snapshots recorded, from .