Burnley
vs
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Garuda Lions Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Probability | Burnley | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.0% | 26.2% | 52.8% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 21.0% | 26.2% | 52.8% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers attack and defence ratings
Burnley
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.2% | 2.12 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 21.0% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 52.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.1% |
| No | 46.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 47.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 0-1 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 9.7% |
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers stats
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
| Burnley |
DLDLDL |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers |
WLWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers season so far
Burnley record
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolverhampton Wanderers record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2024-04-02 | Burnley | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-05 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Burnley | Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.