Birmingham
vs
QPR
3 – 0 Full time
| 23′ | Jhon Elmer Solís Romero | ||
| 27′ | Liam Millar | ||
| 44′ | Harvey Vale | ||
| 49′ | Liam Millar | ||
| 50′ | Rayan Jawad Kolli | ||
| 57′ | Jhon Elmer Solís RomeroMax Bird | ||
| 57′ | Patrick RobertsCarlos Vicente | ||
| 62′ | Rayan Jawad KolliRichard Kone | ||
| 69′ | Christoph·Klarer | ||
| 71′ | Liam MillarDemarai Gray | ||
| 72′ | Jake Clarke-SalterJonathan Varane | ||
| 81′ | Paul SmythKoki Saito | ||
| 81′ | Glen KamaraLeon Scarlett | ||
| 86′ | August PriskeLuis Vasquez | ||
| 90′ | Demarai Gray |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 52 | Possession % | 48 |
| 0 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Offsides | 4 |
| 4 | Saves | 2 |
| 409 | Accurate passes | 356 |
Birmingham vs QPR overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs QPR
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.1% | 26.6% | 28.4% |
| Market | 47.2% | 26.5% | 26.3% |
| Final | 46.6% | 26.5% | 26.8% |
| Edge | -2.1% | +0.0% | +2.1% |
Why Birmingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.26.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and QPR expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.90
Birmingham and QPR attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
QPR
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birmingham vs QPR: result vs prediction
Birmingham 3 – 0 QPR
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs QPR markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 46.6% | 2.14 | -2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 46.6% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| QPR | 26.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.9% |
| No | 41.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 54.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-0 | 7.9% |
Birmingham vs QPR stats
Birmingham and QPR recent form
| Birmingham |
WWDWLD |
| QPR |
WDDDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and QPR going into this match
Birmingham record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
QPR record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Birmingham vs QPR head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Birmingham | QPR | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-09 | QPR | Birmingham | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-29 | QPR | Birmingham | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-09-22 | Birmingham | QPR | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-03-18 | QPR | Birmingham | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2022-10-28 | Birmingham | QPR | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2022-01-02 | Birmingham | QPR | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2021-09-28 | QPR | Birmingham | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2021-02-27 | Birmingham | QPR | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2020-10-24 | QPR | Birmingham | Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs QPR odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 26.7%, away 26.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.54 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.10 | 3.55 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.54 | 3.50 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 3.65 | 3.74 |
| SBO | 2.02 | 3.04 | 3.07 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .