QPR
vs
Swansea
Garuda Lions Prediction: Swansea
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
QPR vs Swansea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: QPR vs Swansea
| Probability | QPR | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.3% | 30.5% | 42.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 27.3% | 30.5% | 42.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Swansea
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.31 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
QPR vs Swansea match preview
In the upcoming Championship match between QPR and Swansea, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. QPR has a 27% chance of winning, while Swansea is favored with a 42% probability. The likelihood of a draw stands at 30%. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 0-1 in favor of Swansea, with an expected goals tally of 1.00 for QPR and 1.31 for Swansea.
Recent form shows QPR struggling with a sequence of results including five draws, while Swansea has had a stronger run, winning four of their last six matches. In their last two head-to-head encounters, both teams have secured one win each. The model suggests a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance that both teams will score, indicating potential for a closely contested match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
QPR and Swansea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
QPR and Swansea attack and defence ratings
QPR
Swansea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
QPR vs Swansea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 42.2% | 2.37 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.5% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 72.7% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 27.3% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Swansea | 42.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.5% |
| No | 52.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 57.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.7% | |
| 0-0 | 11.2% |
QPR vs Swansea stats
QPR and Swansea recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
QPR and Swansea season so far
QPR record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Swansea record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
QPR vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | QPR | Swansea | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-22 | Swansea | QPR | England Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.