Cardiff
vs
Birmingham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birmingham
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Cardiff vs Birmingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff vs Birmingham
| Probability | Cardiff | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.0% | 23.3% | 42.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 34.0% | 23.3% | 42.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Birmingham
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Cardiff vs Birmingham match preview
Cardiff faces Birmingham in the Championship with Cardiff holding a 34% probability of winning, while Birmingham stands at 43%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams are expected to contribute to an exciting match, with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score each having a 71% likelihood.
In terms of expected goals, Cardiff is projected to score 1.73, while Birmingham is forecasted to net 1.94. Recent form shows Cardiff with two draws, a win, and two losses in their last six matches, while Birmingham has been more consistent, winning four of their last six games. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cardiff and Birmingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.67
Cardiff and Birmingham attack and defence ratings
Cardiff
Birmingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff vs Birmingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 42.7% | 2.34 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 34.0% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Birmingham | 42.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.3% |
| No | 28.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 24.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 57.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Cardiff vs Birmingham stats
Cardiff and Birmingham recent form
| Cardiff |
DWLWLD |
| Birmingham |
WWWDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff and Birmingham season so far
Cardiff record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.