Lincoln
vs
Birmingham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birmingham
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.25.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Lincoln vs Birmingham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lincoln vs Birmingham
| Probability | Lincoln | Draw | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.2% | 23.8% | 53.0% |
| Market | 28.1% | 27.1% | 44.8% |
| Final | 26.9% | 26.3% | 46.9% |
| Edge | -1.2% | -0.8% | +2.0% |
Why Birmingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.25.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Birmingham below our published probability: +2.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (our 46.9% × 2.11 − 1).
Lincoln vs Birmingham match preview
Lincoln faces Birmingham in the Championship, with the probabilities indicating a 23% chance of a Lincoln victory, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 53% chance for Birmingham to win. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score stands at 62%, reflecting a potentially high-scoring match.
Recent form shows Lincoln with mixed results, recording a win, a draw, and three losses in their last five matches. In contrast, Birmingham has been in better form, with four wins and a draw in their last five encounters. The expected goals for Lincoln are 1.25, while Birmingham is projected at 1.96, suggesting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lincoln and Birmingham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.22
Lincoln and Birmingham attack and defence ratings
Lincoln
Birmingham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lincoln vs Birmingham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 46.9% | 2.13 | +2.0% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.0% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 26.9% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Birmingham | 46.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.4% |
| No | 37.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 31.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 47.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.7% |
Lincoln vs Birmingham stats
Lincoln and Birmingham recent form
| Lincoln |
WDLLLW |
| Birmingham |
LWWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lincoln and Birmingham season so far
Lincoln record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Birmingham record
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lincoln vs Birmingham head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Birmingham | Lincoln | England FA Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lincoln vs Birmingham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.1%, draw 27.1%, away 44.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.34 | 3.44 | 2.08 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.45 | 3.55 | 2.08 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 3.44 | 2.06 |
| Pinnacle | 3.44 | 3.48 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 3.08 | 3.11 | 1.98 |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.10 |