Stoke City
vs
Preston
Garuda Lions Prediction: Stoke City
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.74.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Stoke City vs Preston overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stoke City vs Preston
| Probability | Stoke City | Draw | Preston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70.8% | 19.3% | 9.9% |
| Market | 55.4% | 24.6% | 20.0% |
| Final | 59.3% | 23.3% | 17.4% |
| Edge | +3.8% | -1.3% | -2.5% |
Why Stoke City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Stoke City below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (our 59.3% × 1.73 − 1).
Stoke City vs Preston match preview
Stoke City is set to face Preston in the England Championship, with a strong probability of victory at 71% according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with a 13% likelihood. Stoke City has shown solid recent form, with three wins in their last six matches, while Preston has struggled, managing only one draw in their last six outings. The expected goals for Stoke City stand at 2.25, compared to Preston's 0.74.
In terms of scoring, there is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, and both teams have a 48% probability of scoring. Historically, in their last two encounters, Stoke City has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Preston. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stoke City and Preston expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Stoke City and Preston attack and defence ratings
Stoke City
Preston
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Stoke City vs Preston markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 59.3% | 1.69 | +3.8% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stoke City | 59.3% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Preston | 17.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.6% |
| No | 52.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Stoke City win | 47.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 29.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.7% |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | |
| 3-0 | 9.6% |
Stoke City vs Preston stats
Stoke City and Preston recent form
| Stoke City |
DWLWWW |
| Preston |
DLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stoke City and Preston season so far
Stoke City record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Preston record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Stoke City vs Preston head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Preston | Stoke City | England Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Stoke City | Preston | England Championship | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stoke City vs Preston odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 55.4%, draw 24.6%, away 20.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.66 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.80 | 4.85 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.66 | 3.85 | 4.70 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69 | 3.86 | 4.90 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.40 | 4.26 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.50 |