West Ham
vs
West Brom
Garuda Lions Prediction: West Ham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.27.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — West Ham is the favourite, not a value bet.
West Ham vs West Brom overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Ham vs West Brom
| Probability | West Ham | Draw | West Brom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61.1% | 20.4% | 18.5% |
| Market | 61.2% | 21.5% | 17.4% |
| Final | 61.1% | 21.2% | 17.7% |
| Edge | -0.0% | -0.3% | +0.3% |
Why West Ham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.27.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.0% per unit staked (our 61.1% × 1.57 − 1).
West Ham vs West Brom match preview
West Ham is favored in their upcoming match against West Brom, with a 61% probability of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, occurring with a 9% likelihood. West Ham's expected goals stand at 2.38, while West Brom is expected to score 1.27. Additionally, there is a 71% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals, and a 66% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, West Ham has recorded a mixed set of results with one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches. Conversely, West Brom has achieved two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
West Ham and West Brom expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.65
West Ham and West Brom attack and defence ratings
West Ham
West Brom
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Ham vs West Brom markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 61.1% | 1.64 | -0.0% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win | 40.2% | 2.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 61.1% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| West Brom | 17.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.1% |
| No | 33.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win | 40.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 38.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.4% |
| 1-1 | 8.7% | |
| 3-1 | 7.4% |
West Ham vs West Brom stats
West Ham and West Brom recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Ham and West Brom season so far
West Ham record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.5 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Brom record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
West Ham vs West Brom head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
West Ham vs West Brom odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.2%, draw 21.5%, away 17.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.33 | 5.25 |
| Bet365 | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.35 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.50 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Marathonbet | 1.52 | 4.33 | 5.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.46 | 5.52 |
| SBO | 1.45 | 3.90 | 4.94 |
| William Hill | 1.55 | 4.00 | 5.00 |