West Brom
vs
Southampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Southampton
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
West Brom vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Brom vs Southampton
| Probability | West Brom | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.4% | 28.1% | 40.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.4% | 28.1% | 40.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Southampton
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
West Brom vs Southampton match preview
West Brom hosts Southampton in the Championship with both teams showing contrasting recent form. West Brom has recorded two wins and three draws in their last six matches, while Southampton has been more successful, winning four of their last six. According to our model, the probabilities for this match suggest Southampton has a 41% chance of winning compared to West Brom's 31%, with a 28% likelihood of a draw.
The expected goals indicate a competitive encounter, with West Brom projected to score 1.26 and Southampton 1.45. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
West Brom and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.71
West Brom and Southampton attack and defence ratings
West Brom
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Brom vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 40.5% | 2.47 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 31.4% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Southampton | 40.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% |
| No | 44.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 20.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 0-1 | 8.5% |
West Brom vs Southampton stats
West Brom and Southampton recent form
| West Brom |
DWWLLD |
| Southampton |
WDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Brom and Southampton season so far
West Brom record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Southampton record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
West Brom vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | West Brom | Southampton | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-12-09 | Southampton | West Brom | England Championship | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.