Portsmouth
vs
Swansea
Garuda Lions Prediction: Portsmouth
1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.04.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Portsmouth vs Swansea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portsmouth vs Swansea
| Probability | Portsmouth | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.1% | 28.5% | 25.4% |
| Market | 36.3% | 27.9% | 35.8% |
| Final | 38.7% | 28.0% | 33.2% |
| Edge | +2.5% | +0.2% | -2.6% |
Why Portsmouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.04.
- The market prices Portsmouth below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.6% per unit staked (our 38.7% × 2.65 − 1).
Portsmouth vs Swansea match preview
Portsmouth hosts Swansea in an England Championship clash with Portsmouth holding a 46% probability of winning, while Swansea stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Portsmouth, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Portsmouth recording a W-D-W-W-L-D streak and Swansea winning their last four matches.
The expected goals for Portsmouth are 1.48, compared to 1.04 for Swansea, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the home side. Additionally, there is a 51% chance that both teams will score, and a 46% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. Historically, Swansea has dominated their last two encounters, winning both without conceding.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portsmouth and Swansea expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.53
Portsmouth and Swansea attack and defence ratings
Portsmouth
Swansea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portsmouth vs Swansea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 38.7% | 2.58 | +2.5% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 38.7% |
| Draw | 28.0% | |
| Swansea | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.3% |
| No | 48.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portsmouth win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 53.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 10.6% | |
| 0-0 | 9.2% |
Portsmouth vs Swansea stats
Portsmouth and Swansea recent form
| Portsmouth |
WDWWLD |
| Swansea |
LLWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portsmouth and Swansea season so far
Portsmouth record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swansea record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portsmouth vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Portsmouth | Swansea | England Championship | 1-2 |
| 2025-12-09 | Swansea | Portsmouth | England Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portsmouth vs Swansea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.3%, draw 27.9%, away 35.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.55 | 3.38 | 2.58 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.45 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.45 | 2.70 |
| Marathonbet | 2.55 | 3.38 | 2.58 |