Portsmouth
vs
Stoke City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Portsmouth
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Portsmouth is the favourite, not a value bet.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portsmouth vs Stoke City
| Probability | Portsmouth | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.0% | 30.6% | 33.4% |
| Market | 40.4% | 29.3% | 30.3% |
| Final | 39.3% | 29.6% | 31.0% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +0.3% | +0.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.37, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.37 − 1).
Portsmouth vs Stoke City match preview
Portsmouth faces Stoke City in the Championship with a close contest anticipated, as Portsmouth has a 37% probability of winning compared to Stoke City's 33%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0 in favor of Portsmouth, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Portsmouth recording results of D-W-D-W-W-L and Stoke City achieving W-D-W-L-W-W.
In terms of expected goals, Portsmouth is projected to score 1.03 while Stoke City is slightly ahead at 1.13. The probability of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 37%, and there is a 45% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record shows each team with one win in their last two encounters, indicating a balanced matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portsmouth and Stoke City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Portsmouth and Stoke City attack and defence ratings
Portsmouth
Stoke City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portsmouth vs Stoke City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 39.3% | 2.54 | -1.1% | 2.37 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.4% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 39.3% |
| Draw | 29.6% | |
| Stoke City | 31.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portsmouth win | 15.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 64.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.5% |
| 0-0 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.1% |
Portsmouth vs Stoke City stats
Portsmouth and Stoke City recent form
| Portsmouth |
WDWDWW |
| Stoke City |
WWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portsmouth and Stoke City season so far
Portsmouth record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stoke City record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Stoke City | Portsmouth | England Championship | 1-3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Portsmouth | Stoke City | England Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-01-22 | Portsmouth | Stoke City | Championship | 3-1 |
| 2024-10-02 | Stoke City | Portsmouth | Championship | 6-1 |
| 2014-08-27 | Stoke City | Portsmouth | League Cup | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portsmouth vs Stoke City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.4%, draw 29.3%, away 30.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.14 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.37 | 3.20 | 3.15 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.34 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.14 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.36 | 3.27 | 3.27 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 2.89 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .