Bristol City
vs
Norwich
Garuda Lions Prediction: Norwich
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Norwich is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bristol City vs Norwich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bristol City vs Norwich
| Probability | Bristol City | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.2% | 25.7% | 41.1% |
| Market | 34.8% | 27.5% | 37.6% |
| Final | 34.4% | 27.1% | 38.5% |
| Edge | -0.4% | -0.4% | +0.9% |
Why Norwich
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.1% per unit staked (our 38.5% × 2.57 − 1).
Bristol City vs Norwich match preview
Bristol City faces Norwich in a tightly contested Championship matchup, with probabilities indicating Bristol City at 36% to win, Norwich at 37%, and a draw at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2 in favor of Norwich, with an expected goals tally of 1.51 for Bristol City and 1.53 for Norwich. Both teams have shown potential for scoring, with a 62% likelihood for both teams to find the net and a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Bristol City has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Norwich has experienced a stronger run, winning three of their last five, but they also faced two consecutive losses. The head-to-head record shows each team with one win in their last two encounters, adding to the competitive nature of this fixture.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bristol City and Norwich expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Bristol City and Norwich attack and defence ratings
Bristol City
Norwich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bristol City vs Norwich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 38.5% | 2.60 | +0.9% | 2.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bristol City | 34.4% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Norwich | 38.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Norwich win | 21.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 58.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Bristol City vs Norwich stats
Bristol City and Norwich recent form
| Bristol City |
LWDLLD |
| Norwich |
WWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bristol City and Norwich season so far
Bristol City record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.6 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
Bristol City vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Bristol City | Norwich | England Championship | 2-4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Norwich | Bristol City | England Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-14 | Bristol City | Norwich | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2024-11-09 | Norwich | Bristol City | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-20 | Norwich | Bristol City | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-03 | Bristol City | Norwich | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2023-08-29 | Bristol City | Norwich | League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2023-02-11 | Bristol City | Norwich | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2022-09-14 | Norwich | Bristol City | Championship | 3-2 |
| 2021-01-20 | Norwich | Bristol City | Championship | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bristol City vs Norwich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.8%, draw 27.5%, away 37.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.64 | 3.42 | 2.48 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.45 |
| Betano | 2.70 | 3.55 | 2.52 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.64 | 3.42 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.79 | 3.48 | 2.57 |
| SBO | 2.53 | 3.10 | 2.32 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.30 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .