Derby
vs
Norwich
Garuda Lions Prediction: Norwich
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Norwich is the favourite, not a value bet.
Derby vs Norwich overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Derby vs Norwich
| Probability | Derby | Draw | Norwich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.0% | 25.5% | 43.6% |
| Market | 29.3% | 25.9% | 44.7% |
| Final | 29.7% | 25.8% | 44.4% |
| Edge | +0.4% | -0.1% | -0.3% |
Why Norwich
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 2.13 − 1).
Derby vs Norwich match preview
Derby faces Norwich in the Championship with a probability model favoring Norwich at 44%, compared to Derby's 31% and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected goals for Derby stand at 1.43, while Norwich is slightly higher at 1.73. Recent form shows Derby struggling with a sequence of draws and losses, recording D-L-L-D-D-L, while Norwich has faced a tough stretch with W-L-L-L-L-L.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2 in favor of Norwich, occurring with a 9% likelihood. Additionally, there is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% probability that both teams will score. In their last two encounters, each team has secured one win, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Derby and Norwich expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Derby and Norwich attack and defence ratings
Derby
Norwich
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Derby vs Norwich markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Norwich | 44.4% | 2.25 | -0.3% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Derby | 29.7% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Norwich | 44.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Norwich win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 56.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.1% | |
| 2-1 | 7.5% |
Derby vs Norwich stats
Derby and Norwich recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Derby and Norwich season so far
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norwich record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
Derby vs Norwich head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Norwich | Derby | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Derby | Norwich | England Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Derby vs Norwich odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.3%, draw 25.9%, away 44.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.14 | 3.62 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.55 | 2.12 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.35 | 3.70 | 2.13 |
| Marathonbet | 3.14 | 3.62 | 2.08 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .