Birmingham
vs
Millwall
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birmingham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.06.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Birmingham vs Millwall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Millwall
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.8% | 23.9% | 19.3% |
| Market | 47.0% | 26.1% | 26.9% |
| Final | 49.5% | 25.6% | 25.0% |
| Edge | +2.4% | -0.5% | -1.9% |
Why Birmingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Birmingham below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.06, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.9% per unit staked (our 49.5% × 2.06 − 1).
Birmingham vs Millwall match preview
Birmingham hosts Millwall in the Championship with a favorable outlook according to our model, which gives Birmingham a 57% chance of winning, while Millwall stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Birmingham, with an expected goals tally of 1.94 for Birmingham and 1.06 for Millwall. Recent form shows Birmingham with a record of L-W-W-W-D-W, while Millwall has struggled, recording L-D-L-W-D-D.
In terms of scoring, there is a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance that both teams will find the net. The last two head-to-head encounters have seen each team secure one victory, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Millwall expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Birmingham and Millwall attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Millwall
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Millwall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 49.5% | 2.02 | +2.4% | 2.06 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 49.5% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Millwall | 25.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.9% |
| No | 43.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 34.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.4% |
Birmingham vs Millwall stats
Birmingham and Millwall recent form
| Birmingham |
LWWWDW |
| Millwall |
LDLWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and Millwall season so far
Birmingham record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Birmingham vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Millwall | Birmingham | England Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Birmingham | Millwall | England Championship | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Millwall odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.0%, draw 26.1%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.62 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.06 | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.95 | 3.62 | 3.50 |