West Brom
vs
Millwall
Garuda Lions Prediction: West Brom
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.16.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — West Brom is the favourite, not a value bet.
West Brom vs Millwall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: West Brom vs Millwall
| Probability | West Brom | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.9% | 24.3% | 21.8% |
| Market | 46.8% | 26.5% | 26.7% |
| Final | 48.5% | 26.0% | 25.5% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.6% | -1.2% |
Why West Brom
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.5% per unit staked (our 48.5% × 2.05 − 1).
West Brom vs Millwall match preview
West Brom hosts Millwall in the Championship, with the model indicating a 49% probability of a home win, while a draw sits at 26% and an away victory for Millwall at 24%. The most likely scoreline forecasted is 2-1, with a 10% probability. The expected goals suggest West Brom will score 1.69 and Millwall 1.13, indicating a potentially competitive match.
Recent form shows West Brom with a record of D-W-W-L-L-D, while Millwall has L-D-L-W-D-D. In their last two encounters, West Brom has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss to Millwall. The model suggests a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
West Brom and Millwall expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
West Brom and Millwall attack and defence ratings
West Brom
Millwall
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
West Brom vs Millwall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 48.5% | 2.06 | +1.8% | 2.05 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Brom | 48.5% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Millwall | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.4% |
| No | 40.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Brom win | 31.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 46.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.5% |
West Brom vs Millwall stats
West Brom and Millwall recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
West Brom and Millwall season so far
West Brom record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
West Brom vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | West Brom | Millwall | England Championship | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Millwall | West Brom | England Championship | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Millwall | West Brom | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-10-05 | West Brom | Millwall | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2024-03-29 | Millwall | West Brom | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-23 | West Brom | Millwall | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2023-04-01 | West Brom | Millwall | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-22 | Millwall | West Brom | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2022-01-29 | Millwall | West Brom | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2021-09-11 | West Brom | Millwall | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
West Brom vs Millwall odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.8%, draw 26.5%, away 26.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.99 | 3.62 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.65 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.04 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.97 | 3.62 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.02 | 3.63 | 3.59 |
| SBO | 1.99 | 3.06 | 3.13 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .