Birmingham
vs
Swansea
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birmingham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.04.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Birmingham vs Swansea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Swansea
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Swansea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.7% | 22.3% | 17.0% |
| Market | 51.2% | 26.1% | 22.8% |
| Final | 53.5% | 25.1% | 21.3% |
| Edge | +2.4% | -0.9% | -1.4% |
Why Birmingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Birmingham below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (our 53.5% × 1.87 − 1).
Birmingham vs Swansea match preview
Birmingham hosts Swansea in the Championship with a slight edge in the probabilities, as Birmingham has a 49% chance of winning compared to Swansea's 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Birmingham, with an expected goals tally of 1.71 for Birmingham and 1.18 for Swansea. Both teams have shown attacking potential, with a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Birmingham has recorded four wins in their last six matches, while Swansea has also performed well with four wins in their last six. The head-to-head record favors Birmingham, who have won two of the last three encounters, with one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Swansea expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Birmingham and Swansea attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Swansea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Swansea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 53.5% | 1.87 | +2.4% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.3% | 2.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 53.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Swansea | 21.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.5% |
| No | 42.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 38.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 39.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.6% |
Birmingham vs Swansea stats
Birmingham and Swansea recent form
| Birmingham |
WWLWWW |
| Swansea |
LWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and Swansea season so far
Birmingham record
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Swansea record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Birmingham vs Swansea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Swansea | Birmingham | League Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Swansea | Birmingham | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Birmingham | Swansea | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-13 | Birmingham | Swansea | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2023-08-05 | Swansea | Birmingham | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2023-02-04 | Swansea | Birmingham | Championship | 3-4 |
| 2022-11-08 | Birmingham | Swansea | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2022-03-19 | Swansea | Birmingham | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-10-23 | Birmingham | Swansea | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-02 | Birmingham | Swansea | Championship | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Swansea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.2%, draw 26.1%, away 22.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.60 | 4.04 |
| Bet365 | 1.83 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.15 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.84 | 3.74 | 4.17 |
| SBO | 1.80 | 3.16 | 3.64 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .