QPR
vs
Lincoln
Garuda Lions Prediction: QPR
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.11.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — QPR is the favourite, not a value bet.
QPR vs Lincoln overview
Garuda Lions analysis: QPR vs Lincoln
| Probability | QPR | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.0% | 20.7% | 16.3% |
| Market | 57.3% | 23.8% | 18.9% |
| Final | 58.7% | 23.0% | 18.2% |
| Edge | +1.4% | -0.8% | -0.6% |
Why QPR
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.4% per unit staked (our 58.7% × 1.68 − 1).
QPR vs Lincoln match preview
In the upcoming Championship match, QPR is favored with a 69% probability of winning against Lincoln, who has a 13% chance of securing a victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of QPR, with an expected goals tally of 2.60 for QPR compared to 1.09 for Lincoln. Additionally, there is a 71% likelihood of the match featuring over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score in 62% of the scenarios.
Recent form shows QPR with a mixed record of W-L-W-D-D-D, while Lincoln has struggled, recording L-W-D-L-L-L in their last six matches. Despite QPR's stronger position in the probabilities and expected goals, the confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
QPR and Lincoln expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.41
QPR and Lincoln attack and defence ratings
QPR
Lincoln
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
QPR vs Lincoln markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 58.7% | 1.70 | +1.4% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 58.7% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| Lincoln | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.2% |
| No | 38.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win | 41.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.6% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-1 | 9.3% | |
| 2-0 | 8.7% |
QPR vs Lincoln stats
QPR and Lincoln recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
QPR and Lincoln season so far
QPR record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Lincoln record
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
QPR vs Lincoln head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
QPR vs Lincoln odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.3%, draw 23.8%, away 18.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 3.94 | 4.94 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| Dafabet | 1.68 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.94 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.24 | 4.73 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.47 | 4.34 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .