Blackburn
vs
West Ham
Garuda Lions Prediction: West Ham
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.78.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — West Ham is the favourite, not a value bet.
Blackburn vs West Ham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Blackburn vs West Ham
| Probability | Blackburn | Draw | West Ham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.0% | 20.3% | 52.7% |
| Market | 19.4% | 23.0% | 57.6% |
| Final | 21.3% | 22.3% | 56.4% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -0.7% | -1.2% |
Why West Ham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 1.78.
Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.3% per unit staked (our 56.4% × 1.68 − 1).
Blackburn vs West Ham match preview
In the upcoming Championship match between Blackburn and West Ham, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter. Blackburn has a 29% chance of winning, while West Ham leads with a 48% probability. The likelihood of a draw stands at 23%. The most anticipated scoreline from our model is 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
Both teams show a strong inclination towards scoring, with a 72% chance for both teams to find the net and a similar 72% probability for over 2.5 goals in the match. Expected goals are calculated at 1.64 for Blackburn and 2.12 for West Ham, reflecting the offensive capabilities of both sides. Recent form shows Blackburn with three wins in their last six matches, while West Ham has two wins in their last six.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Blackburn and West Ham expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.26
Blackburn and West Ham attack and defence ratings
Blackburn
West Ham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Blackburn vs West Ham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 56.4% | 1.77 | -1.2% | 1.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.3% | 2.11 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 21.3% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| West Ham | 56.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 20.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76.8% |
| No | 23.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win | 33.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 47.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | |
| 1-1 | 6.9% |
Blackburn vs West Ham stats
Blackburn and West Ham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Blackburn and West Ham season so far
Blackburn record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
West Ham record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackburn vs West Ham head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-09 | West Ham | Blackburn | League Cup | 2-2 |
| 2016-02-21 | Blackburn | West Ham | FA Cup | 1-5 |
| 2011-05-07 | West Ham | Blackburn | Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2010-12-18 | Blackburn | West Ham | Premier League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Blackburn vs West Ham odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.4%, draw 23.0%, away 57.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.70 | 4.10 | 1.63 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.90 | 4.05 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.20 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.61 |
| Pinnacle | 4.91 | 4.23 | 1.63 |
| SBO | 4.12 | 3.57 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .