Cardiff
vs
Burnley
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cardiff
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.37.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cardiff is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cardiff vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cardiff vs Burnley
| Probability | Cardiff | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.2% | 23.5% | 25.3% |
| Market | 44.2% | 25.2% | 30.7% |
| Final | 45.9% | 24.8% | 29.3% |
| Edge | +1.8% | -0.4% | -1.3% |
Why Cardiff
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 1.37.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.1% per unit staked (our 45.9% × 2.18 − 1).
Cardiff vs Burnley match preview
Cardiff hosts Burnley in the Championship with a strong probability of victory for the home side at 60%. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1, which aligns with the expectation of over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 68%. Cardiff has shown mixed recent form with three wins and three losses in their last six matches, while Burnley has struggled, managing only one win in their last six outings.
The expected goals indicate Cardiff at 2.43 and Burnley at 1.35, highlighting a potential advantage for the home team in offensive output. In their most recent head-to-head encounter, Cardiff secured a win, further supporting their favorable position ahead of this match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, reflecting some uncertainty in the outcome.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cardiff and Burnley expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.38
Cardiff and Burnley attack and defence ratings
Cardiff
Burnley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Cardiff vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 45.9% | 2.18 | +1.8% | 2.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.8% | 2.05 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cardiff | 45.9% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Burnley | 29.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65.5% |
| No | 34.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cardiff win | 30.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.8% | |
| Loss | 48.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Cardiff vs Burnley stats
Cardiff and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cardiff and Burnley season so far
Cardiff record
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley record
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cardiff vs Burnley head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Burnley | Cardiff | League Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-04 | Cardiff | Burnley | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2024-08-17 | Burnley | Cardiff | Championship | 5-0 |
| 2023-05-08 | Burnley | Cardiff | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2022-10-01 | Cardiff | Burnley | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2019-04-13 | Burnley | Cardiff | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2018-09-30 | Cardiff | Burnley | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2016-04-05 | Burnley | Cardiff | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2015-11-28 | Cardiff | Burnley | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2013-04-20 | Burnley | Cardiff | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cardiff vs Burnley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.2%, draw 25.2%, away 30.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.70 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.75 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.18 | 3.85 | 3.15 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.70 | 3.06 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.82 | 3.07 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.26 | 2.66 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .