Preston
vs
Southampton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Southampton
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 0.88.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Preston vs Southampton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Preston vs Southampton
| Probability | Preston | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 10.1% | 17.3% | 72.6% |
| Market | 19.8% | 22.8% | 57.4% |
| Final | 17.4% | 21.4% | 61.2% |
| Edge | -2.4% | -1.4% | +3.8% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.54 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Southampton below our published probability: +3.8 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +2.2% per unit staked (our 61.2% × 1.67 − 1).
Preston vs Southampton match preview
Preston hosts Southampton in the Championship with a significant disparity in form. Preston's recent results show a streak of five games without a win, recording four losses and a draw. In contrast, Southampton has been more successful, winning three of their last five matches, with only one loss. According to our model, Preston has a 10% chance of winning, while Southampton stands at 71%, suggesting a strong likelihood for the visitors.
The expected goals for this match indicate a challenging outing for Preston, with an expected total of 0.76 compared to Southampton's 2.30. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 0-2, occurring at a rate of 12%. Additionally, there is a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals, and both teams have a 49% chance of scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Preston and Southampton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.42
Preston and Southampton attack and defence ratings
Preston
Southampton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Preston vs Southampton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 61.2% | 1.63 | +3.8% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Preston | 17.4% |
| Draw | 21.4% | |
| Southampton | 61.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 51.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 27.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 0-3 | 8.9% |
Preston vs Southampton stats
Preston and Southampton recent form
| Preston |
LLDLLL |
| Southampton |
DWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Preston and Southampton season so far
Preston record
- They have won 1 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
Southampton record
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.9 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
Preston vs Southampton head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Preston | Southampton | England Championship | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-01 | Southampton | Preston | England Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-16 | Southampton | Preston | Championship | 3-0 |
| 2023-10-25 | Preston | Southampton | Championship | 2-2 |
| 2011-09-21 | Southampton | Preston | League Cup | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Preston vs Southampton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 19.8%, draw 22.8%, away 57.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.50 | 4.15 | 1.65 |
| Bet365 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
| BetVictor | 4.75 | 4.10 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.90 | 4.05 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.65 |
| Dafabet | 4.90 | 4.20 | 1.67 |
| Marathonbet | 4.55 | 4.15 | 1.63 |
| Pinnacle | 4.96 | 4.30 | 1.62 |
| SBO | 3.97 | 3.54 | 1.63 |
| William Hill | 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .