Charlton
vs
Sheffield Utd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sheffield Utd
0 – 1 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.83.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charlton vs Sheffield Utd
| Probability | Charlton | Draw | Sheffield Utd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.2% | 25.3% | 58.5% |
| Market | 26.9% | 27.2% | 45.9% |
| Final | 24.2% | 26.7% | 49.1% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -0.5% | +3.2% |
Why Sheffield Utd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sheffield Utd below our published probability: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.11, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.5% per unit staked (our 49.1% × 2.11 − 1).
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd match preview
Charlton faces Sheffield United in the Championship with a probability model indicating a 22% chance for a Charlton win, a 28% likelihood of a draw, and a 50% chance for Sheffield United to secure victory. The expected goals for Charlton stand at 0.95, while Sheffield United is projected at 1.55, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline according to the model is 0-1, with a 12% probability.
In terms of recent form, Charlton has struggled, recording two losses and three draws in their last five matches. Conversely, Sheffield United has shown more resilience, with three wins, one draw, and two losses in the same timeframe. The model indicates a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Charlton and Sheffield Utd expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Charlton and Sheffield Utd attack and defence ratings
Charlton
Sheffield Utd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
Before and after this match
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sheffield Utd | 49.1% | 2.04 | +3.2% | 2.11 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.5% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 24.2% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Sheffield Utd | 49.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.9% |
| No | 52.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 50.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sheffield Utd win | 34.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.4% | |
| Loss | 41.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | |
| 0-2 | 11.6% |
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd stats
Charlton and Sheffield Utd recent form
| Charlton |
LLLLDD |
| Sheffield Utd |
WWDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charlton and Sheffield Utd season so far
Charlton record
- They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sheffield Utd record
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Charlton | Sheffield Utd | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Sheffield Utd | Charlton | England Championship | 0-1 |
| 2017-03-18 | Sheffield Utd | Charlton | League One | 2-1 |
| 2016-11-26 | Charlton | Sheffield Utd | League One | 1-1 |
| 2014-03-09 | Sheffield Utd | Charlton | FA Cup | 2-0 |
| 2012-01-21 | Charlton | Sheffield Utd | League One | 1-0 |
| 2011-10-01 | Sheffield Utd | Charlton | League One | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Charlton vs Sheffield Utd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.9%, draw 27.2%, away 45.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.52 | 3.50 | 2.00 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.55 | 3.45 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.50 | 2.11 |
| Marathonbet | 3.52 | 3.50 | 1.98 |
| Pinnacle | 3.51 | 3.46 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 3.05 | 3.04 | 2.03 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .