Charlton
vs
Bolton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Charlton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Charlton is the favourite, not a value bet.
Charlton vs Bolton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Charlton vs Bolton
| Probability | Charlton | Draw | Bolton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.5% | 25.7% | 40.8% |
| Market | 42.5% | 26.9% | 30.6% |
| Final | 40.2% | 26.6% | 33.2% |
| Edge | -2.3% | -0.3% | +2.5% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.29, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.9% per unit staked (our 40.2% × 2.29 − 1).
Charlton vs Bolton match preview
Charlton will face Bolton in the Championship with a projected probability of winning at 40%, while Bolton has a 33% chance of victory and a 27% likelihood of a draw. The most likely scoreline, according to our model, is 2-1 in favor of Charlton, with an 8% probability. The expected goals for Charlton stand at 1.48, compared to Bolton's 1.65, indicating a closely contested match.
In terms of recent form, Charlton has struggled, recording a series of results that include three losses and three draws in their last six matches. Conversely, Bolton has shown better form, with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their recent outings. Our model suggests a high chance of goals, with a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 64% likelihood that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Charlton and Bolton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.14
Charlton and Bolton attack and defence ratings
Charlton
Bolton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Charlton vs Bolton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 40.2% | 2.49 | -2.3% | 2.29 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.5% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Charlton | 40.2% |
| Draw | 26.6% | |
| Bolton | 33.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 66.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Charlton win | 16.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 66.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 7.9% |
Charlton vs Bolton stats
Charlton and Bolton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Charlton and Bolton season so far
Charlton record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bolton record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlton vs Bolton head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Charlton vs Bolton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.5%, draw 26.9%, away 30.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.20 | 3.48 | 3.05 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.45 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.29 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.18 | 3.48 | 3.04 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .