Middlesbrough
vs
Charlton
Garuda Lions Prediction: Middlesbrough
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Middlesbrough is the favourite, not a value bet.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Middlesbrough vs Charlton
| Probability | Middlesbrough | Draw | Charlton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 75.1% | 15.1% | 9.8% |
| Market | 73.2% | 16.3% | 10.5% |
| Final | 73.7% | 16.0% | 10.3% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -0.3% | -0.2% |
Why Middlesbrough
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.91 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.31, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.5% per unit staked (our 73.7% × 1.31 − 1).
Middlesbrough vs Charlton match preview
Middlesbrough enters the match against Charlton with a strong probability of winning at 75%, while Charlton has a 10% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 8% likelihood. Middlesbrough's expected goals stand at 2.91, compared to Charlton's 1.03, indicating a significant advantage in offensive potential.
Recent form reflects contrasting performances; Middlesbrough has recorded three wins and two draws in their last six matches, while Charlton has struggled with no wins, two draws, and four losses in the same period. The model also suggests a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 61% probability that both teams will find the net during the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Middlesbrough and Charlton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.94
Middlesbrough and Charlton attack and defence ratings
Middlesbrough
Charlton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Middlesbrough vs Charlton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 73.7% | 1.36 | +0.5% | 1.31 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% | 1.12 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 73.7% |
| Draw | 16.0% | |
| Charlton | 10.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.3% |
| No | 38.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 56.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.0% | |
| Loss | 24.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.5% |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | |
| 3-1 | 8.2% |
Middlesbrough vs Charlton stats
Middlesbrough and Charlton recent form
| Middlesbrough |
WDWWDD |
| Charlton |
LLDDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Middlesbrough and Charlton season so far
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Charlton record
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | Middlesbrough | Charlton | England Championship | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-09 | Charlton | Middlesbrough | England Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Middlesbrough vs Charlton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.2%, draw 16.3%, away 10.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 5.70 | 8.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 5.80 | 8.75 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.70 | 8.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 5.84 | 8.84 |
| SBO | 1.24 | 5.13 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 |