Southampton
vs
QPR
Garuda Lions Prediction: Southampton
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Southampton is the favourite, not a value bet.
Southampton vs QPR overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Southampton vs QPR
| Probability | Southampton | Draw | QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.2% | 26.0% | 27.8% |
| Market | 53.8% | 23.6% | 22.6% |
| Final | 51.9% | 24.2% | 23.9% |
| Edge | -1.9% | +0.6% | +1.3% |
Why Southampton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.6% per unit staked (our 51.9% × 1.78 − 1).
Southampton vs QPR match preview
Southampton is set to face QPR in the Championship, with the model indicating a 46% probability of a home win for Southampton, while QPR has a 28% chance of securing victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Southampton, with a 9% likelihood. The model also suggests a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 60% chance that both teams will find the net.
In terms of recent form, Southampton has recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last six matches, while QPR has achieved two wins, three draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Historically, Southampton has dominated their recent encounters, winning both of the last two matches against QPR with no draws or losses. The expected goals for this match are 1.71 for Southampton and 1.28 for QPR, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Southampton and QPR expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.99
Southampton and QPR attack and defence ratings
Southampton
QPR
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Southampton vs QPR markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 51.9% | 1.93 | -1.9% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Southampton | 51.9% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| QPR | 23.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% |
| No | 39.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Southampton win | 25.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.0% | |
| Loss | 53.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-0 | 7.5% |
Southampton vs QPR stats
Southampton and QPR recent form
| Southampton |
WDWWLW |
| QPR |
WLWDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Southampton and QPR season so far
Southampton record
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
QPR record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Southampton vs QPR head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | Southampton | QPR | England Championship | 5-0 |
| 2025-11-05 | QPR | Southampton | England Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Southampton vs QPR odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.8%, draw 23.6%, away 22.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.71 | 4.15 | 4.12 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.95 | 4.25 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.69 | 4.15 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 4.08 | 4.28 |
| SBO | 1.66 | 3.62 | 3.71 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.00 |