Millwall
vs
Derby
Garuda Lions Prediction: Millwall
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.02.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Millwall is the favourite, not a value bet.
Millwall vs Derby overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Millwall vs Derby
| Probability | Millwall | Draw | Derby |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.6% | 25.7% | 20.6% |
| Market | 54.8% | 24.9% | 20.3% |
| Final | 54.5% | 25.1% | 20.4% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.2% | +0.1% |
Why Millwall
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.73, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 54.5% × 1.73 − 1).
Millwall vs Derby match preview
Millwall hosts Derby in the Championship with a 54% probability of victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 10% chance of occurring. Millwall's expected goals stand at 1.76, while Derby's are significantly lower at 1.02. Recent form shows Millwall with mixed results, recording one win and two draws in their last five matches, while Derby has struggled, with no wins in their last six outings.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 52% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance that both teams will score. Historically, in their last two encounters, Millwall has secured one win and one draw against Derby, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Millwall and Derby expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
Millwall and Derby attack and defence ratings
Millwall
Derby
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Millwall vs Derby markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 54.5% | 1.83 | -0.3% | 1.73 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.4% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millwall | 54.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Derby | 20.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.9% |
| No | 46.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Millwall win | 30.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 46.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Millwall vs Derby stats
Millwall and Derby recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Millwall and Derby season so far
Millwall record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
Derby record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Millwall vs Derby head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Millwall | Derby | England Championship | 1-0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Derby | Millwall | England Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Millwall vs Derby odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.8%, draw 24.9%, away 20.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 3.74 | 4.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| Betano | 1.72 | 3.85 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.74 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 3.93 | 4.94 |
| SBO | 1.61 | 3.43 | 4.22 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.60 |