Burnley
vs
Portsmouth
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burnley
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Burnley is the favourite, not a value bet.
Burnley vs Portsmouth overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Burnley vs Portsmouth
| Probability | Burnley | Draw | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.8% | 25.9% | 44.2% |
| Market | 46.1% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Final | 42.0% | 26.7% | 31.3% |
| Edge | -4.1% | -0.3% | +4.3% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.9% per unit staked (our 42.0% × 2.12 − 1).
Burnley vs Portsmouth match preview
Burnley faces Portsmouth in the Championship with a forecasted probability of 42% for a Burnley win, 27% for a draw, and 31% for a Portsmouth victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Burnley, with a 7% likelihood. The expected goals for Burnley stand at 1.36, while Portsmouth is slightly ahead at 1.69.
Recent form shows Burnley struggling with two losses, a draw, and two mixed results, while Portsmouth has fared better with three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches. The model indicates a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% likelihood that both teams will score, suggesting a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Burnley and Portsmouth expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
Burnley and Portsmouth attack and defence ratings
Burnley
Portsmouth
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Burnley vs Portsmouth markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 42.0% | 2.38 | -4.1% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.3% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 42.0% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Portsmouth | 31.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61.6% |
| No | 38.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win | 13.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.2% | |
| Loss | 70.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Burnley vs Portsmouth stats
Burnley and Portsmouth recent form
| Burnley |
LLDWDL |
| Portsmouth |
WDWWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Burnley and Portsmouth season so far
Burnley record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Portsmouth record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burnley vs Portsmouth head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Burnley vs Portsmouth odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.1%, draw 26.9%, away 26.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.03 | 3.48 | 3.44 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.45 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.30 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.48 | 3.44 |
| Pinnacle | 2.05 | 3.44 | 3.65 |
| SBO | 2.03 | 3.04 | 3.04 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.50 |