Lincoln
vs
Burnley
Garuda Lions Prediction: Burnley
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Lincoln vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lincoln vs Burnley
| Probability | Lincoln | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.4% | 25.5% | 46.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.4% | 25.5% | 46.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Burnley
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.34.
Lincoln vs Burnley match preview
Lincoln faces Burnley in the Championship with the probabilities indicating a challenging match for the home side. Lincoln has a 28% chance of winning, while Burnley is favored at 46%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 62%, and there is a 60% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
In terms of recent form, Lincoln has recorded a mixed set of results with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. Burnley, on the other hand, has had a slightly better run, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in the same timeframe. Expected goals suggest Lincoln will generate 1.34, while Burnley is projected to score 1.75. The confidence grade for this matchup stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lincoln and Burnley expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Lincoln and Burnley attack and defence ratings
Lincoln
Burnley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lincoln vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 46.1% | 2.17 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.9% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 28.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Burnley | 46.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.1% |
| No | 37.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Burnley win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 53.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.3% | |
| 2-1 | 7.2% |
Lincoln vs Burnley stats
Lincoln and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lincoln and Burnley season so far
Lincoln record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Burnley record
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.