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England Championship · Full time ·Matchday 11

Millwall vs Lincoln

2 – 2 Full time

1′Andrei Coubiș
33′Robert Nicholas Street
35′Tristan Crama
35′Robert Nicholas Street
41′F. Draper
45′Filip MarshallMax Crocombe
45′Mark SykesLuke Cundle
63′Kyrell Lisbie
66′Reeco Hackett-FairchildDaniel Oyegoke
69′Andrei Coubiș
72′Kyrell Lisbie
72′Jenson MetcalfeRomain Esse
72′Tristan CramaRyan Leonard
80′Adam ReachRyley Towler
80′Dom JefferiesCallum Elder
80′Kyrell LisbieZakariya Lovelace
82′Jake Cooper
84′Deji Elerewe
86′Zak Sturge
90′Ryan Leonard
90′Callum Elder
90′Camiel Neghli
90′F. DraperMikkel Ladefoged

The Den, LondonReferee: Ruebyn Ricardo

Millwall 57%
Draw 24%
Lincoln 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

18 Shots 9
6 Shots on target 3
70 Possession % 30
12 Corners 2
14 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 6
1 Saves 4
296 Accurate passes 94

Millwall vs Lincoln overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Millwall vs Lincoln

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMillwallDrawLincoln
Model57.2%24.5%18.3%
Market56.8%24.3%18.8%
Final56.9%24.4%18.7%
Edge+0.4%+0.1%-0.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Millwall

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 0.98.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Millwall ↓ / Lincoln → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 10% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 79%
3+ goals 54%
No goals 7%

Millwall and Lincoln expected goals

Millwall 1.87
Lincoln 0.98

Total expected goals: 2.85

Millwall and Lincoln attack and defence ratings

Millwall

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Lincoln

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Millwall vs Lincoln: result vs prediction

Millwall 2 – 2 Lincoln

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

England Championship

Before and after this match

Millwall vs Lincoln markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Millwall 56.9% 1.76 +0.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 54.2% 1.85 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.9% 1.86 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.3% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.8% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Millwall56.9%
Draw24.4%
Lincoln18.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554.2%
Under 2.545.8%
Both teams to scoreYes53.9%
No46.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.3%
12 (either side)75.6%
X2 (draw or away)43.1%
Handicap -1Millwall win34.0%
Push (exactly one goal)23.2%
Loss42.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
2-010.1%
2-19.9%

Millwall vs Lincoln stats

Millwall and Lincoln recent form

newest first
Millwall LWDDLL
Lincoln LLLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Millwall and Lincoln going into this match

league record before kick-off

Millwall record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.

Lincoln record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Millwall vs Lincoln head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Millwall vs Lincoln odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 56.9%, draw 24.4%, away 18.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.65 3.85 4.89
Bet365 1.57 3.90 5.75
BetVictor 1.65 3.80 5.00
Betano 1.70 3.85 5.00
Betfair 1.65 3.80 5.00
Dafabet 1.69 4.00 5.00
Marathonbet 1.63 3.85 4.95
Pinnacle 1.68 4.07 5.08
SBO 1.60 3.46 4.33
William Hill 1.67 3.80 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.65 ▼ -0.23
X 3.85 ▲ +0.30
2 4.97 ▲ +1.17

13 snapshots recorded, from .