Lincoln
vs
West Ham
Garuda Lions Prediction: West Ham
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Lincoln vs West Ham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lincoln vs West Ham
| Probability | Lincoln | Draw | West Ham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 23.2% | 47.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 28.8% | 23.2% | 47.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why West Ham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.55.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Lincoln vs West Ham match preview
Lincoln faces West Ham in the England Championship with a probability model suggesting a 29% chance of a Lincoln victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 48% chance for West Ham to win. The most likely scoreline forecasted is 1-2, occurring at a 9% likelihood. Both teams are expected to score, with the model indicating a 69% probability for this outcome, alongside a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of expected goals, Lincoln is projected to score 1.55, while West Ham is forecasted to net 2.02. Recent form shows Lincoln with a record of L-W-W-L-D-D, while West Ham has performed better with D-L-W-W-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is rated as C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lincoln and West Ham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.57
Lincoln and West Ham attack and defence ratings
Lincoln
West Ham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lincoln vs West Ham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | West Ham | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.8% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lincoln | 28.8% |
| Draw | 23.2% | |
| West Ham | 47.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.2% |
| No | 30.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 52.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | West Ham win | 28.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.7% |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Lincoln vs West Ham stats
Lincoln and West Ham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lincoln and West Ham season so far
Lincoln record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
West Ham record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.