Birmingham
vs
Preston
4 – 0 Full time
| 24′ | Liam GibbsDelano Burgzorg | ||
| 34′ | Liam Millar | ||
| 45′ | August Priske | ||
| 45′ | August Priske | ||
| 45′ | Callum LangAndrew Moran | ||
| 47′ | Stanley Mills | ||
| 50′ | Liam Millar | ||
| 56′ | Stanley Mills | ||
| 61′ | Jhon Elmer Solís RomeroMax Bird | ||
| 61′ | Liam MillarDemarai Gray | ||
| 61′ | Alfie DevineLewis Gibson | ||
| 75′ | Patrick RobertsCarlos Vicente | ||
| 75′ | Tomoki IwataTaylor·Gardner Hickman | ||
| 76′ | Demarai Gray | ||
| 84′ | Jay StansfieldMarvin Ducksch |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 76 | Possession % | 24 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 8 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 476 | Accurate passes | 116 |
Birmingham vs Preston overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Preston
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Preston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.4% | 23.1% | 16.5% |
| Market | 64.3% | 21.0% | 14.7% |
| Final | 63.3% | 21.5% | 15.1% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +0.5% | +0.5% |
Why Birmingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Preston expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Birmingham and Preston attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Preston
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Birmingham vs Preston: result vs prediction
Birmingham 4 – 0 Preston
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Preston markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 63.3% | 1.58 | -1.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.7% | 2.52 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 63.3% |
| Draw | 21.5% | |
| Preston | 15.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.6% |
| No | 45.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 84.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 37.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 39.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.9% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 10.0% |
Birmingham vs Preston stats
Birmingham and Preston recent form
| Birmingham |
WDWLDD |
| Preston |
LDLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and Preston going into this match
Birmingham record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Preston record
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Birmingham vs Preston head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Birmingham | Preston | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Preston | Birmingham | England Championship | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-01 | Birmingham | Preston | Championship | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-19 | Preston | Birmingham | Championship | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-21 | Birmingham | Preston | Championship | 1-2 |
| 2022-09-03 | Preston | Birmingham | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2022-01-15 | Preston | Birmingham | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2021-09-25 | Birmingham | Preston | Championship | 0-0 |
| 2021-01-20 | Birmingham | Preston | Championship | 0-1 |
| 2020-10-31 | Preston | Birmingham | Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Preston odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 64.3%, draw 21.0%, away 14.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.17 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.50 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.65 | 6.80 |
| Betfair | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.50 | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.46 | 4.40 | 6.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.78 | 6.58 |
| SBO | 1.47 | 3.98 | 5.61 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.33 | 5.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .