Birmingham
vs
Preston
Garuda Lions Prediction: Birmingham
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Birmingham vs Preston overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Birmingham vs Preston
| Probability | Birmingham | Draw | Preston |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.2% | 21.9% | 18.8% |
| Market | 57.0% | 24.1% | 18.8% |
| Final | 57.6% | 23.6% | 18.8% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -2.2% | -0.0% |
Why Birmingham
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Birmingham below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.67, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Birmingham vs Preston match preview
Birmingham enters the match against Preston with a 57% probability of winning, reflecting their recent form of two wins and three draws in the last five matches. The expected goals for Birmingham stand at 2.17, indicating a strong attacking performance, while Preston's expected goals are at 1.17, suggesting they may struggle to find the net.
Historically, Birmingham has had the upper hand in their last two encounters, securing two victories without conceding. The likelihood of a high-scoring match is significant, with a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% probability that both teams will score. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1 in favor of Birmingham, with a confidence grade of C based on blended probabilities.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Birmingham and Preston expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.34
Birmingham and Preston attack and defence ratings
Birmingham
Preston
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Birmingham vs Preston markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 57.6% | 1.74 | +2.2% | 1.67 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Birmingham | 57.6% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Preston | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 35.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Birmingham win | 37.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 40.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Birmingham vs Preston stats
Birmingham and Preston recent form
| Birmingham |
DWLDDW |
| Preston |
DLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Birmingham and Preston season so far
Birmingham record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Preston record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Birmingham vs Preston head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Birmingham | Preston | England Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Preston | Birmingham | England Championship | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Birmingham vs Preston odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.0%, draw 24.1%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 3.85 | 4.86 |
| Dafabet | 1.67 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .