Middlesbrough
vs
Cardiff
2 – 2 Full time
| 19′ | Brian Barry-Murphy | ||
| 22′ | Jack Moylan | ||
| 25′ | Joel Bagan | ||
| 45′ | Ollie·Tanner | ||
| 45′ | Kyle Josephwill lankshear | ||
| 45′ | Luke AylingSebastian Berhalter | ||
| 45′ | Joel ColwillDavid Turnbull | ||
| 58′ | Tommy Conway | ||
| 61′ | will lankshear | ||
| 63′ | Christopher WillockWilliam Fish | ||
| 73′ | Ronan KpakioCalum Scanlon | ||
| 74′ | Amario Cozier-DuberryMax Arfsten | ||
| 79′ | Ollie·TannerIsaak Davies | ||
| 79′ | Riley McGreeMyles Peart-Harris | ||
| 83′ | Gabriel Osho | ||
| 88′ | Jack Moylan | ||
| 89′ | Neto BorgesJeremy Sarmiento |
Match stats
| 36 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 1 | Saves | 8 |
| 408 | Accurate passes | 307 |
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
| Probability | Middlesbrough | Draw | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.2% | 22.3% | 33.5% |
| Market | 62.0% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| Final | 57.5% | 20.5% | 21.9% |
| Edge | -17.7% | +2.3% | +15.4% |
Why Middlesbrough
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Middlesbrough and Cardiff expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.91
Middlesbrough and Cardiff attack and defence ratings
Middlesbrough
Cardiff
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff: result vs prediction
Middlesbrough 2 – 2 Cardiff
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 57.5% | 1.74 | -17.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 79.5% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Middlesbrough | 57.5% |
| Draw | 20.5% | |
| Cardiff | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.2% |
| No | 25.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Middlesbrough win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.4% | |
| Loss | 55.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.2% |
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff stats
Middlesbrough and Cardiff recent form
| Middlesbrough |
WWDDWL |
| Cardiff |
WLWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Middlesbrough and Cardiff going into this match
Middlesbrough record
- They have won 6 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cardiff record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-04 | Middlesbrough | Cardiff | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-31 | Cardiff | Middlesbrough | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2024-04-27 | Cardiff | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-4 |
| 2023-10-03 | Middlesbrough | Cardiff | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-11 | Cardiff | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-3 |
| 2022-09-13 | Middlesbrough | Cardiff | Championship | 2-3 |
| 2022-04-27 | Middlesbrough | Cardiff | Championship | 2-0 |
| 2021-10-23 | Cardiff | Middlesbrough | Championship | 0-2 |
| 2021-02-27 | Middlesbrough | Cardiff | Championship | 1-1 |
| 2020-10-24 | Cardiff | Middlesbrough | Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Middlesbrough vs Cardiff odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.7%, draw 20.2%, away 18.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.51 | 4.75 | 5.07 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.65 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.90 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.50 | 4.75 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 5.05 | 5.45 |
| SBO | 1.46 | 4.18 | 4.51 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .