Portsmouth
vs
Millwall
Garuda Lions Prediction: Portsmouth
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Portsmouth vs Millwall overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portsmouth vs Millwall
| Probability | Portsmouth | Draw | Millwall |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.1% | 27.2% | 28.7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 44.1% | 27.2% | 28.7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Portsmouth
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 1.23.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Portsmouth vs Millwall match preview
Portsmouth will host Millwall in the Championship on October 24, 2026, with a probability of 44% for a Portsmouth victory, 27% for a draw, and 29% for a Millwall win, according to our model. The expected goals for Portsmouth stand at 1.57, while Millwall is projected to score 1.23. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Portsmouth, with a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Portsmouth has recorded two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Millwall has managed one win, two draws, and three losses in the same timeframe. Additionally, there is a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 57% chance that both teams will score in the match. The head-to-head record shows Portsmouth with two wins and Millwall with none in their last two encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portsmouth and Millwall expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.80
Portsmouth and Millwall attack and defence ratings
Portsmouth
Millwall
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Portsmouth vs Millwall markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 44.1% | 2.27 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.8% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portsmouth | 44.1% |
| Draw | 27.2% | |
| Millwall | 28.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.2% |
| No | 42.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Portsmouth win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 1-0 | 8.4% |
Portsmouth vs Millwall stats
Portsmouth and Millwall recent form
| Portsmouth |
WWLDDW |
| Millwall |
DLWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Portsmouth and Millwall season so far
Portsmouth record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Millwall record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
Portsmouth vs Millwall head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Millwall | Portsmouth | England Championship | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-22 | Portsmouth | Millwall | England Championship | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.