Blackburn
vs
Wrexham
Garuda Lions Prediction: Blackburn
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Blackburn vs Wrexham overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Blackburn vs Wrexham
| Probability | Blackburn | Draw | Wrexham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.5% | 24.9% | 28.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 46.5% | 24.9% | 28.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Blackburn
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Blackburn vs Wrexham match preview
Blackburn faces Wrexham in the Championship with a probability of 47% for a Blackburn win, 25% for a draw, and 29% for a Wrexham victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Blackburn, occurring with a 9% likelihood. The expectation for over 2.5 goals stands at 62%, while both teams scoring is projected at 64%.
In terms of recent form, Blackburn has recorded results of L-W-W-D-W-L, while Wrexham has a record of W-L-D-W-L-D. The expected goals for Blackburn is 1.81, compared to Wrexham's 1.39. Historically, in their last two encounters, Blackburn has not secured a win, with Wrexham winning once and one match ending in a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Blackburn and Wrexham expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.20
Blackburn and Wrexham attack and defence ratings
Blackburn
Wrexham
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Blackburn vs Wrexham markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 46.5% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Wrexham | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Blackburn win | 26.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Blackburn vs Wrexham stats
Blackburn and Wrexham recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Blackburn and Wrexham season so far
Blackburn record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Wrexham record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackburn vs Wrexham head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-01 | Blackburn | Wrexham | England Championship | 0-2 |
| 2025-11-29 | Wrexham | Blackburn | England Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.