Swansea
vs
Blackburn
Garuda Lions Prediction: Swansea
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Swansea is the favourite, not a value bet.
Swansea vs Blackburn overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Swansea vs Blackburn
| Probability | Swansea | Draw | Blackburn |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.6% | 28.2% | 38.2% |
| Market | 53.5% | 25.7% | 20.8% |
| Final | 48.5% | 26.4% | 25.1% |
| Edge | -5.0% | +0.6% | +4.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.7% per unit staked (our 48.5% × 1.82 − 1).
Swansea vs Blackburn match preview
Swansea enters the match against Blackburn with a 49% probability of winning, while Blackburn stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Swansea, with an 8% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Swansea will score 1.30 and Blackburn 1.40, indicating a competitive match.
In terms of recent form, Swansea has recorded two losses followed by three consecutive wins, while Blackburn has a mixed record with four wins, one loss, and one draw in their last six matches. The model indicates a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score, reflecting a potentially high-scoring encounter. The head-to-head record shows Swansea with two wins against Blackburn's zero in their last two meetings.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Swansea and Blackburn expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.70
Swansea and Blackburn attack and defence ratings
Swansea
Blackburn
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Swansea vs Blackburn markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 48.5% | 2.06 | -5.0% | 1.82 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.4% | 1.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Swansea | 48.5% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Blackburn | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.0% |
| No | 44.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Swansea win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 66.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | |
| 0-1 | 8.2% |
Swansea vs Blackburn stats
Swansea and Blackburn recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Swansea and Blackburn season so far
Swansea record
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Blackburn record
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Swansea vs Blackburn head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | Swansea | Blackburn | England Championship | 3-1 |
| 2025-09-30 | Blackburn | Swansea | England Championship | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Swansea vs Blackburn odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.5%, draw 25.7%, away 20.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.46 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.40 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.82 | 3.60 | 4.45 |
| Betfair | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.72 | 3.70 | 4.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.72 | 4.58 |
| SBO | 1.68 | 3.32 | 3.95 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.40 |