Blackburn
vs
Stoke City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Blackburn
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Blackburn is the favourite, not a value bet.
Blackburn vs Stoke City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Blackburn vs Stoke City
| Probability | Blackburn | Draw | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.5% | 28.2% | 31.3% |
| Market | 39.3% | 28.0% | 32.7% |
| Final | 39.6% | 28.1% | 32.4% |
| Edge | +0.3% | +0.0% | -0.4% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (our 39.6% × 2.45 − 1).
Blackburn vs Stoke City match preview
Blackburn hosts Stoke City in the Championship with Blackburn holding a 41% probability of winning, while Stoke City sits at 31%. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Blackburn, with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score. Expected goals are calculated at 1.44 for Blackburn and 1.24 for Stoke City.
In terms of recent form, Blackburn has recorded three wins, a draw, and a loss in their last six matches, while Stoke City has achieved four wins and two draws in the same period. The head-to-head record shows that in their last two encounters, Blackburn has not secured a win, with two draws against Stoke City. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Blackburn and Stoke City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Blackburn and Stoke City attack and defence ratings
Blackburn
Stoke City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Blackburn vs Stoke City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 39.6% | 2.53 | +0.3% | 2.45 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.9% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.5% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Blackburn | 39.6% |
| Draw | 28.1% | |
| Stoke City | 32.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.6% |
| No | 44.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Blackburn win | 20.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 59.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-0 | 8.6% |
Blackburn vs Stoke City stats
Blackburn and Stoke City recent form
| Blackburn |
WLWWDW |
| Stoke City |
DWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Blackburn and Stoke City season so far
Blackburn record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
Stoke City record
- They have won 6 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Blackburn vs Stoke City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Stoke City | Blackburn | England Championship | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Blackburn | Stoke City | England Championship | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Blackburn vs Stoke City odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.3%, draw 28.0%, away 32.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.39 | 3.36 | 2.78 |
| Betano | 2.45 | 3.35 | 2.92 |
| Betfair | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.43 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.36 | 2.78 |