Watford
vs
Lincoln
Garuda Lions Prediction: Watford
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Watford is the favourite, not a value bet.
Watford vs Lincoln overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Watford vs Lincoln
| Probability | Watford | Draw | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29.9% | 26.4% | 43.7% |
| Market | 40.7% | 27.1% | 32.2% |
| Final | 38.0% | 26.9% | 35.1% |
| Edge | -2.7% | -0.2% | +2.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (our 38.0% × 2.35 − 1).
Watford vs Lincoln match preview
Watford faces Lincoln in the Championship with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Watford has struggled, recording five losses in their last six matches, while Lincoln has shown some resilience with a recent win and a draw. The probabilities suggest Watford has a 38% chance of winning, while Lincoln stands at 35%, indicating a competitive matchup.
The expected goals for the match highlight a slight edge for Lincoln at 1.64 compared to Watford's 1.33. Our model predicts a most likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Watford, with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this fixture is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Watford and Lincoln expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
Watford and Lincoln attack and defence ratings
Watford
Lincoln
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Watford vs Lincoln markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Watford | 38.0% | 2.63 | -2.7% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.1% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Watford | 38.0% |
| Draw | 26.9% | |
| Lincoln | 35.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.3% |
| No | 39.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Watford win | 13.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.4% | |
| Loss | 70.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Watford vs Lincoln stats
Watford and Lincoln recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Watford and Lincoln season so far
Watford record
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
Lincoln record
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Watford vs Lincoln head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Watford vs Lincoln odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 27.1%, away 32.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.30 | 3.45 | 2.89 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 3.40 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.35 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.28 | 3.45 | 2.88 |