QPR
vs
Burnley
Garuda Lions Prediction: QPR
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.15.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
QPR vs Burnley overview
Garuda Lions analysis: QPR vs Burnley
| Probability | QPR | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.5% | 19.7% | 15.8% |
| Market | 44.4% | 26.2% | 29.4% |
| Final | 49.4% | 24.5% | 26.0% |
| Edge | +5.0% | -1.6% | -3.4% |
Why QPR
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices QPR below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.14, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.8% per unit staked (our 49.4% × 2.14 − 1).
QPR vs Burnley match preview
QPR will host Burnley in the Championship, with the model indicating a strong likelihood of a home victory at 65%. The expected goals for QPR stand at 2.42, while Burnley is projected to score 1.15. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a 9% probability. Additionally, there is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match, and both teams are expected to find the net with a 63% probability.
In terms of recent form, QPR has recorded a mixed set of results with three draws, a win, and a loss in their last six matches. In contrast, Burnley has struggled, managing only one win and suffering three losses in their last six games. The confidence grade for this match is rated at C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
QPR and Burnley expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
QPR and Burnley attack and defence ratings
QPR
Burnley
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
QPR vs Burnley markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 49.4% | 2.02 | +5.0% | 2.14 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.5% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win | 43.5% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | QPR | 49.4% |
| Draw | 24.5% | |
| Burnley | 26.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | QPR win | 43.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.1% | |
| Loss | 35.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-1 | 8.6% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
QPR vs Burnley stats
QPR and Burnley recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
QPR and Burnley season so far
QPR record
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Burnley record
- They have won 1 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
QPR vs Burnley head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
QPR vs Burnley odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 26.2%, away 29.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.14 | 3.58 | 3.08 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.90 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.85 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 2.12 | 3.58 | 3.08 |